Clarity Act odds jump on Kalshi ahead of expected Senate vote, but passage remains far off

Prediction-market traders sharply raised their implied odds on Sept. 14, 2026, that U.S. crypto market-structure legislation known as the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) will become law. Kalshi’s live market page showed its contract on the bill becoming law before Oct. 1, 2027, at a 57% chance with roughly $8.75 million in volume as of that day’s retrieval, while CoinDesk reported the move came ahead of an expected Senate cloture vote on Tuesday.

What Kalshi’s market shows

Kalshi lists the question as a single series — “Will the Clarity Act become law? Or any qualifying crypto market structure bill” — split into three contracts with different deadlines. As of Sept. 14, Kalshi’s displayed page showed a 45% chance of passage before Apr. 1, 2027, a 50% chance before Jul. 1, 2027, and a 57% chance before Oct. 1, 2027, each flagged with double-digit one-day gains of 13, 13 and 16 points respectively. Displayed pricing put Yes at 45¢ and No at 56¢ on the April contract, Yes at 53¢ and No at 50¢ on the July contract, and Yes at 63¢ and No at 43¢ on the October contract.

Those figures are intraday snapshots of live trading, not settled outcomes, and they can move quickly as new information reaches traders.

The reported surge

According to CoinDesk’s reporting of platform dashboards, Kalshi’s October 2027 contract rose from 26% on Thursday to as high as 64% overnight before settling back to around 53% on Monday morning. CoinDesk also reported that Polymarket bettors put the chance of the Clarity Act being signed into law this year at nearly 30% Monday morning, up from 12% earlier in September — figures attributed to CoinDesk’s account of the event contract’s dashboard rather than independently verified platform data.

Where the bill actually stands

The market repricing concerns a bill that has moved slowly through Congress. According to Congress.gov, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, sponsored by Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.), passed the House 294–134 on July 17, 2025. The Senate Banking Committee reported it on June 1, 2026, with an amendment in the nature of a substitute, and a cloture motion on the motion to proceed to the measure was presented in the Senate on Aug. 8, 2026. The bill’s official status remains “Passed House”; the reported Tuesday vote date comes from CoinDesk and is not reflected in the congressional record as of retrieval.

Per its bill text, the measure would create a system for SEC and CFTC regulation of the offer and sale of digital commodities, including registration regimes for digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers. The Senate committee’s amendment struck the House-passed text in favor of substitute language.

The remaining road

As CoinDesk described it, the expected Tuesday cloture vote would require 60 senators, forcing bipartisan support — and clearing it would be a procedural milestone, not final passage. The measure could still face a lengthy amendment process, any Senate changes would need to be reconciled with the House-passed version, and a final bill would require the president’s signature.

Not all analysts share the market’s optimism. TD Cowen financial policy analyst Jaret Sieberg maintained a 25% chance of passage on Monday, CoinDesk reported. “We are not convinced the updated ethics language Senate Republicans released last night is substantive enough for moderate Democrats,” he wrote in a note to clients, adding that Democrats may not see enough in the package to justify getting on board. Sieberg also said the changes could give Democrats more political cover if they wanted to support the bill, and that pending nominations to the CFTC and SEC could be offered to sweeten a final negotiation.