Polymarket Contract Puts Clarity Act’s 2026 Odds at 18% as Senate Cloture Vote Nears

Odds on Polymarket that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (H.R.3633) will be signed into law in 2026 fell sharply overnight, dropping from a Monday high of 34% to 17% by Tuesday morning, Sept. 15, 2026, according to CoinDesk. The Polymarket page for the contract displayed an 18% implied probability as of roughly 10:46 UTC on Sept. 15. The move came as bitcoin gave back a late-Monday rally, falling 1.7% since midnight UTC to around $76,862, CoinDesk reported, after touching $79,427 on Monday. CoinDesk attributed the odds decline to news that Senate Democrats had sent Republicans a counterproposal on the bill’s ethics language late Monday.

The Polymarket contract

The central contract asks a binary question: “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?” Traders buy yes or no shares, and the price functions as an implied probability. As of the Sept. 15 retrieval, the Polymarket page displayed $17 million in total volume for the contract, about $1 million traded that day, and $356,000 in liquidity — figures that shift in real time and represent a snapshot, not fixed totals. The market’s page indicated it ends in four months.

The same page listed related contracts tied to the legislation, including markets on which senators will vote for the Clarity Act and on how many senators will support it, each with substantially lower displayed volume than the headline signed-into-law contract. The page also displayed a notice that trading is blocked in the United States on polymarket.com, directing U.S. users to polymarket.us.

Late-Monday counterproposal from Democrats

Senate Democrats sent a counterproposal on the market-structure bill to Republican counterparts late Monday, a source familiar with the situation told CoinDesk, which noted that Politico first reported the counteroffer and that it could not immediately confirm the counteroffer’s details. The counterproposal followed a revised Republican draft circulated Sunday.

According to CoinDesk’s reporting, numerous Democrats — including some viewed as likely yes votes — raised concerns about the revised ethics language. The chief complaints, per that report, were that the updated language would block state attorneys general from directly bringing a lawsuit or enforcement action against the U.S. president, and that the Office of Government Ethics could issue a notice allowing senior government officials to continue their crypto business ties. CoinDesk reported that the sticking point in negotiations was the ethics language governing officials’ crypto holdings rather than the market-structure provisions themselves.

Republicans describe their text as final

In a Sept. 14 press release, Senators Cynthia Lummis, John Boozman and Tim Scott released what they described as a final draft of the Clarity Act ahead of Tuesday’s vote, saying it reflected more than a year of bipartisan negotiations and 126 substantive changes made at Democrats’ request. The release states the text incorporates “substantially all” of the Tillis-Gallego ethics proposal, including a role for state attorneys general in enforcement, gives the Treasury Secretary new authority tied to payment stablecoins, and includes edits to the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act shielding developers from money-transmission registration requirements.

“After a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations, this bill is ready,” Lummis said in the release. The senators said that if cloture is invoked on the motion to proceed, the text would be offered as an amendment in the nature of a substitute. CoinDesk also reported dissent from outside groups ahead of the vote: the Indian Gaming Association called for provisions limiting the CFTC’s ability to let prediction-market operators offer sports event contracts, a multistate coalition of state attorneys general said the bill would unduly restrict enforcement actions tied to “online scams,” and major banking associations continued to seek changes to stablecoin yield language.

What the bill does and where it stands

Per the Congress.gov record for H.R.3633, the bill would have the Commodity Futures Trading Commission generally regulate digital commodity transactions, including exchanges, brokers and dealers, while exempting digital commodities on mature blockchains from SEC registration requirements under certain conditions. Digital commodity exchanges, brokers and dealers would be subject to the Bank Secrecy Act for anti-money-laundering purposes.

The bill, sponsored by Rep. French Hill and introduced May 29, 2025, passed the House 294-134 on July 17, 2025. The Senate Banking Committee reported it with an amendment in the nature of a substitute on June 1, 2026, and a cloture motion on the motion to proceed was presented in the Senate on Aug. 8, 2026, according to Congress.gov.

A procedural vote, not passage

The Senate was scheduled to vote at 2:15 p.m. ET on Sept. 15 on whether to invoke cloture on the motion to proceed — a procedural step requiring 60 votes, per CoinDesk. Invoking cloture would allow debate on the bill to continue; it would not pass the bill. Additional Senate votes would remain, and because the Senate text differs from the House-passed version, further House action and a presidential signature would still be required before the measure could become law — the event the Polymarket contract resolves on.

For prediction-market participants, the immediate question is the outcome of the 2:15 p.m. ET cloture vote and how the Clarity Act contract — and the related senator vote-count markets — reprice in response to the tally and any subsequent negotiations over the ethics language.