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Category: Learn

Resolution Risk: How Prediction Markets Decide Who Won (and When It Goes Wrong)

2 months ago – Kalshi settles markets in-house under CFTC-filed rules; Polymarket's global markets end in a bonded dispute and a UMA…

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Can You Actually Make Money on Prediction Markets? The Honest Math

2 months ago – Event-contract trading is zero-sum before fees and negative-sum after. The honest arithmetic: what edge it takes to break…

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How Accurate Are Prediction Markets? We Ran the Numbers

2 months ago – The famous "94% accurate" stat measures almost nothing. We survey what calibration studies actually show about prediction markets…

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Polymarket Fees, Explained

2 months ago – Polymarket's zero-fee era ended in 2026. As of August 2026, takers pay up to $1.75 per 100 shares…

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Kalshi Fees, Explained — With the Math

2 months ago – Kalshi charges one fee that matters: a trading fee of 7% of your expected profit, peaking at 1.75¢…

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Prediction Market Taxes, Explained (Kalshi, Polymarket, and the IRS)

2 months ago – Kalshi doesn't send a form that reports your trading profit, the IRS has never said how event contracts…

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Is Kalshi Legal? The 50-State Tracker

2 months ago – Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange, and in most states everything it lists trades normally. But as of…

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Is Trading Prediction Markets Gambling or Investing?

2 months ago – Federal law treats prediction market contracts as regulated derivatives; several states argue they're unlicensed gambling. Here's what the…

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The Prediction Markets Glossary: Every Term You Need, in Plain English

2 months ago – Every prediction market term that matters — from event contract to self-certification — defined in plain English with…

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How to Read a Prediction Market Price

2 months ago – A 60¢ contract means the market puts the odds at roughly 60% — but spreads, depth, fees, and…

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