PitchBook raises Kalshi estimate to $42.3 billion, Polymarket to $20.6 billion
A new PitchBook analyst note lifts its valuations for the two largest US prediction markets, pointing to rising trading activity and a strengthening revenue outlook, while flagging contested US market access as a central risk.
PitchBook on October 23, 2026, published an analyst note raising its estimates for the two leading US prediction-market platforms, valuing Kalshi at $42.3 billion and Polymarket at $20.6 billion.
The note, titled “Q4 2026 Prediction Markets Go Head-to-Head: Raising Estimates on Recent Momentum,” was written by analyst Franco Granda as part of PitchBook’s late-stage company research.
PitchBook said swift expansion of US prediction markets is driving its estimates upward, pointing to heavier trading activity and a revenue outlook that is improving.
How the note compares the platforms
PitchBook said Kalshi stays in front in its assessment on the strength of its scale and earnings capacity, while Polymarket’s US expansion has reduced, without fully closing, the gap the firm previously identified between Polymarket’s fundamentals and its latest fundraising valuation.
The note examines how each platform converts trading into revenue, wins customers and finances its expansion.
PitchBook said Polymarket’s reduced trading rebates present a test of whether the platform can hold its momentum while retaining a larger share of fees, and that competition and contested US market access remain key to whether either company can produce the earnings its valuation requires.
Trading-volume findings
PitchBook’s data show Kalshi ahead on trading volume, with Polymarket’s US business now larger than its international one as adoption of prediction markets in the US picks up.
The chart series run through a trailing 30 days to October 14, 2026.
Report scope and availability
The report’s table of contents covers an executive summary, estimate revisions, platform economics, distribution, growth and market access, and references.
The full report is gated behind a download form; PitchBook clients can access the report and its Excel data pack through the Research Center on the PitchBook Platform.
Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.