Kalshi Launches Sector KPI Event Contracts With Carbon Arc Settlement Data

Kalshi on Oct. 23, 2026 launched sector KPI prediction markets, expanding its event contracts to measures such as credit card spend, point-of-sale data, foot traffic and app downloads for whole industries rather than single companies.

Kalshi announced that the contracts resolve to data from Carbon Arc.

The exchange already offers contracts on KPIs for individual companies, including app downloads for one AI product.

With the new contracts, a trader can take a position on a metric for an entire category, such as downloads across the AI sector, instead of only for one app.

How sector KPI contracts differ from company-level markets

Kalshi frames the launch as an extension of what it says prediction markets already do: the company says event contracts break individual stocks into their underlying drivers, and that sector KPIs do the same for ETFs.

According to Kalshi, market participants can use the contracts to focus on one industry metric rather than buying a fund that combines fundamentals, sentiment and macro exposure in a single instrument.

Stated use cases and pricing rationale

Kalshi says the contracts create hedging uses that previously were unavailable, pointing to a retailer facing slower consumer spending, a restaurant operator tracking foot traffic, or a developer whose revenue depends on adoption across an app category as examples of businesses that could offset risk with a contract tied to the metric that drives their business.

The company also says investors can manage sector exposure more precisely than with a stock or ETF.

Kalshi says prices on its platform form on an open, public order book as participants trade against one another, that all trades and price moves are visible, and that competition among participants with different information turns the price into a continuously updated forecast of where an industry is heading.

Settlement data and availability

The contracts settle against Prisms data from Carbon Arc, which Kalshi describes as a data infrastructure platform that links entities across different data assets into a single unified ontology.

Sector KPI contracts are available now on Kalshi’s website and mobile app.

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