Polymarket odds of a January Fed hike cross 50% after hot October CPI
Polymarket's January 2027 quarter-point Fed hike contract was priced at 50.5 cents as of 4:06 a.m. ET Nov. 11, up from 17.5 cents 24 hours earlier.
Traders on Polymarket now put slightly better-than-even odds on the Federal Reserve raising rates at its January meeting, in addition to any move it makes in December.
As of 4:06 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 11, “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?” was priced at 50.5 cents for Yes. Polymarket’s API lists a 24-hour gain of 28 points (the hourly history shows a rise from 17.5 cents at 4 a.m. ET Nov. 10), on about $280,682 in 24-hour volume and about $709,838 traded since the market opened.
The January “No change” contract fell 25 points over the same 24 hours to 48.5 cents, on about $242,609 in 24-hour volume. The other brackets were close to zero: 0.75 cents for a hike of 50 basis points or more, 0.75 cents for a 25-basis-point cut and 0.45 cents for a cut of 50 or more.
What a January Yes actually means
The January contracts do not measure the total change from today’s rate. All five brackets resolve on how many basis points the upper bound of the federal funds target range changes versus its level just before the Jan. 26-27, 2027 meeting, using the FOMC statement issued after that meeting.
A Yes on the quarter-point contract therefore requires a hike at the January meeting itself, on top of whatever the Fed does on Dec. 9. If the Fed raises rates in December and then holds in January, the January “No change” bracket pays out, not the hike bracket.
The rules round an unlisted move up to the nearest 25 basis points, so a 12.5-point change would count as 25. If no statement is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to “No change.”
The upper bound currently sits at 4%, after the FOMC raised the range to 3.75%-4% on Sept. 16, as EventMarkets reported on the December contracts.
How the move unfolded
Polymarket’s hourly price history shows the January hike contract trading between 17.5 and 18.5 cents from Nov. 6 through Nov. 9. It was still at 17.5 cents at 4 a.m. ET on Nov. 10.
The climb started before dawn. The price reached 22.5 cents at 5 a.m. ET and 25.5 cents by 6 a.m. ET, and held there through 8 a.m. ET. Overnight, Fed Governor Chris Waller had suggested the central bank should hike next month even on a soft inflation report, CoinDesk reported.
The October consumer price index came out that morning. It showed prices up 0.4% for the month against forecasts of 0.3%, with core prices up 0.3% against forecasts of 0.2%. After the release, the contract rose to 35.5 cents by 9 a.m. ET, 41 cents by 10 a.m. ET and 49.5 cents by noon. It traded between 47.5 and 49.5 cents for the rest of the day and reached 50.5 cents at 4 a.m. ET on Nov. 11.
December pricing leans even more heavily toward a hike. As of 4:06 a.m. ET, Polymarket’s December “No change” contract traded at 3.9 cents. The 25-basis-point hike bracket stood at 85.5 cents and the 50-plus bracket at 9.45 cents.
Kalshi’s January ladder is thin
Kalshi lists the January meeting as threshold contracts on the rate level, not on the change at one meeting. That makes its prices a different question from Polymarket’s.
At about 4:08 a.m. ET, “Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed’s Jan 27, 2027 meeting?” last traded at 45 cents, up from a previous price of 15 cents. From a 4% starting point, that rung needs the upper bound at 4.5% or higher after January, which could come from two quarter-point hikes or a single half-point move at either meeting.
Trading was light. About 444 contracts traded on that rung in 24 hours, and its quote was wide, with a 47-cent bid and a 64-cent ask. The next rung, above 4.50%, was quoted at 2 cents bid and 18 cents ask, with no trades in the past day.
Kalshi’s December contracts were far more active. The above-4.00% rung last traded at 96 cents, up from 83, and the above-4.25% rung at 11 cents, up from 1. That rung traded about 176,064 contracts in 24 hours, and the above-4.00% rung about 64,795.
Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.