Polymarket odds of Nvidia ending 2026 as the world’s largest company fall to 9.5 cents
Polymarket's year-end largest-company contract for Nvidia fell from 21.5 to 9.5 cents in a day, while Apple's rose to about 89 cents.
Traders on Polymarket cut the odds that Nvidia will be the world’s largest company by market value at the end of 2026. The “Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?” contract traded at 9.5 cents at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 12, down from 21.5 cents at the same time on Wednesday, according to Polymarket’s hourly price history. About $154,000 changed hands on the contract in the 24 hours to 10:09 a.m. ET, and Polymarket’s data show it down 23.5 points over the past week.
Apple’s contract in the same Polymarket event rose to about 88.7 cents at 10 a.m. ET Thursday from 75.8 cents a day earlier, and last traded at 89.6 cents as of 10:09 a.m. ET. At that time, Microsoft and Alphabet each traded under 1 cent.
How the contract settles
The event, “Largest Company end of December 2026?”, resolves to the company with the largest market capitalization in the world on Dec. 31, 2026, as of market close. One contract is listed for each candidate, and only one can pay out. The whole event has traded about $10.5 million since it opened, including about $328,000 in the past 24 hours as of 10:09 a.m. ET Thursday.
A price is not a forecast of share prices. It is what traders were willing to pay at that moment for a contract that pays $1 if that company finishes the year on top. At 9.5 cents, the Nvidia contract implied roughly a one-in-ten chance as of Thursday morning. The best bid was 9 cents and the best offer 11 cents at the time of our snapshot.
Leadership news at Nvidia
Nvidia’s leadership was also in the news this week. On Wednesday evening, a separate Polymarket ladder on whether Jensen Huang would leave the chief executive job jumped as Nvidia’s board weighed his future. On Thursday, Nov. 12, Nvidia announced that Huang had resigned as president, CEO and board member, effective immediately. Colette Kress, the chief financial officer, agreed to serve as interim CEO while keeping the CFO role, and the board named Harvey C. Jones its first-ever chair. The board is searching for a permanent CEO and will consider internal and external candidates.
Those exit contracts traded at 99.9 cents as of 9:10 a.m. ET Thursday, pending settlement. The largest-company market measures something else: market capitalization at the close on Dec. 31, with a consensus of credible reporting as its resolution source. Eight companies had active contracts in the event as of Thursday, including Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet.
What comes next
Nvidia is scheduled to report its third-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Tuesday, Nov. 17, at about 1:20 p.m. PT, followed by an earnings call at 2 p.m. PT. That report lands about six weeks before the largest-company contract settles.
Polymarket also lists second- and third-largest-company markets for year-end 2026, but they are thin: as of Thursday morning, each Nvidia contract in them had traded a few thousand dollars in the past day. Kalshi does not list a comparable largest-company market, based on a search of its public series list on Thursday.
As of Thursday morning, the main contract priced Apple as the heavy favorite, with Nvidia’s price less than half of where it stood a day earlier.
Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.