Kalshi’s FY2026 ICE removals market settles after ICE reports 483,200 deportations

Kalshi settled its “Deportations in 2026?” event, a ladder of contracts on whether ICE removals in fiscal 2026 would top set thresholds, on November 12, 2026, the day U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement published its full-year total. ICE carried out 483,200 deportations in fiscal year 2026, the agency reported in a November 12 news release announced by the Department of Homeland Security.

Kalshi recorded 483,200 as the expiration figure for every contract in the event. The thresholds at 200,000, 300,000, 400,000, 425,000 and 450,000 settled Yes. The thresholds at 500,000 and 600,000 settled No. Trading closed at 10:21 a.m. ET and the markets were finalized at 10:51 a.m. ET.

What the official record shows

The release puts FY2026 deportations at 483,200, above the 442,640 it reports for FY2025, which it describes as the previous agency record. ICE gives just over 59,000 deportations for FY2021 and 486,000 for FY2022 through FY2024 combined.

The same release reports more than 491,000 immigration arrests in FY2026, including nearly 475,000 administrative arrests. For September, it lists more than 48,000 arrests and 44,000 removals. Monthly arrest totals were 43,900 in June, 50,208 in July and 50,925 in August.

The headline figure is labeled deportations, while the Kalshi contract asks about removals. The release uses “removals” for its September figure, and Kalshi’s settlement figure matches the 483,200 annual total. ICE is listed as the event’s settlement source, and the market’s secondary rule states that it resolves once complete data is available for FY2026.

Kalshi’s contract terms for political statistics set out how such figures count. Unless stated otherwise, only the first official or non-preliminary release from the source agency is used, later revisions do not change the result, and “above” means strictly greater than the threshold.

How the contracts priced before settlement

The 450,000 and 500,000 strikes sat on either side of the final figure. Kalshi’s hourly price history shows where they stood before the release.

A week before settlement, as of 10 a.m. ET on November 5, the 450,000 contract had last traded at 45 cents, with a bid of 41 cents and an ask of 47 cents. The 500,000 contract had last traded at 9.2 cents.

A day before, as of 10 a.m. ET on November 11, the 450,000 contract had last traded at 49 cents, bid 46 and ask 50. The 500,000 contract had last traded at 4 cents, bid 4 and ask 9.9.

On settlement morning, the 450,000 contract traded between 50 and 85 cents in two minutes between about 9:36 and 9:38 a.m. ET, on roughly 2,780 contracts. Its last trade, shortly before 9:48 a.m. ET, was 60 cents. The 500,000 contract last traded at 9.9 cents shortly before 9:55 a.m. ET.

Among the lower strikes, the 400,000 contract last traded at 94.8 cents before the close and the 425,000 contract at 90 cents. The 600,000 contract last traded at 3 cents on the evening of November 10.

Across its seven strikes, the event traded about 203,600 contracts, each paying $1. The 500,000 strike was the busiest at about 65,950 contracts, followed by 600,000 at about 51,250 and 400,000 at about 34,730. The 450,000 strike, listed in July, traded about 34,240, and the 425,000 strike, added in October, about 3,900.

The Polymarket version is still open

Polymarket lists a related event, “How many people will Trump deport in 2026?“, with about $136,300 in volume as of 1:12 p.m. ET on November 12. It uses ranged brackets rather than thresholds and resolves on the number of noncitizens removed by ICE in fiscal 2026 as shown in the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If that report is not published by February 28, 2027, another credible source will be used.

As of 1:12 p.m. ET, the event remained open. Its 400,000 to 500,000 bracket had last traded at 42 cents, with a bid of 39 cents and an ask of 74 cents. The difference in settlement sources means the Polymarket brackets wait on the annual report or its fallback, while the Kalshi ladder closed on the November 12 release.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.