Carrick exit settles Kalshi and Polymarket markets on Manchester United’s head coach

Kalshi settled its market on whether Michael Carrick would cease to be manager of Manchester United before Jan. 1, 2027, at Yes on Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026, hours after the club announced his exit. In a club statement on Nov. 12, Manchester United confirmed that Carrick “has departed his role as men’s first-team head coach.” The statement names no interim coach. The club “intends to appoint a permanent successor as quickly as possible.”

Trading on the Kalshi contract closed at 11:07 a.m. ET (16:07 UTC), and the market settled at 11:13 a.m. ET, with each Yes contract paying $1. Since it opened in August, the contract traded 118,657 contracts, about 18,100 of them in its final 24 hours of trading. As in our NFL game prices roundup, Kalshi volume here is a count of contracts, not dollars, so it does not compare directly with Polymarket’s dollar figures.

What the club announced

The statement credits Carrick with a third-placed Premier League finish in 2025/26 after he rejoined the club in January, winning 12 of the season’s remaining 17 games. After “a disappointing start to the season,” the club came to “the extremely difficult conclusion that a change is necessary in order to achieve our ambitions.” It calls him “a Manchester United legend.”

An earlier Polymarket market covered his appointment. Polymarket’s Next Manchester United manager? event, which drew about $964,000 in volume, resolved on May 22, 2026, with Carrick’s contract, the most traded in it at about $439,000, settling Yes.

How the price got there

Kalshi’s rules settle the contract on the effective date of departure, “which may be different from submission or announcement dates.” In early October, the best Yes bid sat at 8 or 9 cents. By the end of Oct. 8, New York time, it was 51 cents.

A week before settlement, in the hour ending 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 5, the contract last traded at 77 cents, with a bid of 76 cents and an offer of 77 cents. It last traded at 73 cents in the hour ending 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 9, then at 98 cents in the hour ending 8 p.m. ET that evening. A day before settlement, in the hour ending 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 11, it last traded at 98 cents, with a bid of 98 and an offer of 99. In the hour ending 6 a.m. ET on Nov. 12, about 5,212 contracts traded and the best bid reached 99 cents.

Polymarket ran a dated ladder, Michael Carrick out as Manchester United manager by…?, with about $95,900 traded across five dates. Its Dec. 31, 2026 market, the busiest at about $47,200, was priced at 73 cents at 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 5 and about 96 cents at 11 a.m. ET on Nov. 11. It closed at 7:39 a.m. ET on Nov. 12 and resolved Yes, as did the February, April and June 2027 dates. The Oct. 31 date had already resolved No.

The rest of the board

Kalshi’s event, “EPL: Managers out before 2027,” lists 20 managers, each settled on its own. As of 1:10 p.m. ET on Nov. 12, Pierre Sage’s Crystal Palace contract last traded at 99 cents and had not settled as of that time. Crystal Palace said on Nov. 12 that Sage “has left his role as Manager.” Newcastle’s Matthias Jaissle was next at 37 cents, with a bid of 29 and an offer of 40, on 3,211 contracts traded. Arsenal’s Mikel Arteta, the most traded name after Carrick at 45,460 contracts, last traded at 2 cents.

The question of who replaces Carrick has a thin market. As of 1:11 p.m. ET on Nov. 12, Polymarket’s EPL: Next Manchester United Manager listed Mauricio Pochettino at 95 cents, but the whole event had traded only about $2,100. Carrick’s exit-by-date contracts are closed on both platforms. Polymarket’s small successor market, Kalshi’s other manager contracts and a thinly traded Polymarket market on the first Premier League manager sacked in 2026-27 remain open, and Kalshi’s Sage contract settles under the same effective-date rule.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.