You Can See Everything climbs to 24 cents in Kalshi’s best picture market

Kalshi’s contract on You Can See Everything winning best picture at the 99th Academy Awards last traded at 24 cents as of 12:15 p.m. ET, Nov. 13, 2026, up from 17 cents a day earlier. The contract traded about 147,000 contracts in the previous 24 hours, according to Kalshi’s public market data. The best bid stood at 22 cents and the best offer at 23 cents.

That makes the documentary the second-highest-priced film in Kalshi’s “Oscar Winner: Best Picture” event, behind The Odyssey. Each contract pays $1 if its film wins and nothing if it does not, so a 24-cent price corresponds to roughly a 24% chance in the market’s terms.

How the move unfolded

Kalshi’s hourly price history shows the contract trading at 16 to 17 cents from the afternoon of Nov. 11 until mid-afternoon on Nov. 12. The first burst came in the hour ending 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 12, when about 100,300 contracts traded, the price touched 21 cents and the hour closed at 18.

A second wave of about 32,100 contracts traded in the hour ending 11 p.m. ET. By the hour ending 1 a.m. ET on Nov. 13 the price had closed at 23 cents, and through Friday morning it traded between 20 and 24 cents.

In nominations released Nov. 12, Cinema Eye Honors put You Can See Everything and American Doctor level for the lead with seven each. The Cinema Eye release lists the film in Nonfiction Feature, Direction, Editing, Production, Cinematography and Original Music Score, and calls it the first film in Cinema Eye history nominated in all six. It is also up for the Audience Choice Prize. The ceremony is set for Jan. 11, 2027, in New York.

Four days earlier, on Nov. 8, the film won all five categories it was nominated in at the 11th Critics Choice Documentary Awards, including best documentary feature and best director for Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim.

The rest of the field

As of the same time, Kalshi priced The Odyssey at 53 cents, down from 58 a day earlier, on about 37,600 contracts in 24 hours. The Black Ball traded at 12 cents, down from 15, and Dune: Part Three at 9 cents, up from 8. Wild Horse Nine was at 2 cents. Every other listed film, and a “Tie” outcome, was at 1 cent. Across all 41 outcomes, the event traded about 866,500 contracts in 24 hours.

Polymarket lists the same question in its “Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner” event. As of 12:15 p.m. ET, Nov. 13, it showed The Odyssey at 52.5%, You Can See Everything at 21% (up 3.75 points in a day), La Bola Negra at 12.5%, Dune: Part Three at 7.5% and Digger at about 3%. The You Can See Everything market there traded about $1,240 in 24 hours, and the whole event about $31,700. Our Kalshi vs. Polymarket comparison explains how the two venues differ.

What the contracts settle on

Kalshi’s rule is short: if You Can See Everything has won best picture at the 99th Academy Awards, the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi names the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences as the settlement source, and the contract closes no later than Dec. 31, 2027.

Polymarket’s rules add steps. Any film not nominated for best picture resolves to No as soon as nominations are announced. A tie goes to the nominated film whose listed title comes first alphabetically, and if no winner is declared by 11:59 p.m. ET on June 30, 2027, the market resolves to “Other.”

A24 released You Can See Everything in theaters on Oct. 16, 2026. On A24’s film page, the film opens 34 days before Elizabeth Holmes is sent to prison, when she invites a film crew to document her every move.

The Academy’s calendar

The Academy’s key dates put the final submission deadline for best picture on Nov. 12, 2026. Preliminary voting runs Dec. 7 to 11, with shortlists on Dec. 15. Nominations voting runs Jan. 11 to 15, 2027, and nominations are announced on Thursday, Jan. 21. Final voting runs Feb. 25 to March 4, and the 99th Oscars air on Sunday, March 14, 2027, from the Dolby Theatre, per the Academy and ABC. The Academy notes all dates are subject to change.

Best picture is not Kalshi’s only awards market this week. Its Latin Grammy markets, which settled on Nov. 12, traded about 208,600 contracts across 18 categories.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.