Polymarket’s Japan Q3 GDP market puts 0% to 0.8% on top at 24.8 cents before the Cabinet Office release

Japan’s Cabinet Office publishes its first estimate of July-to-September 2026 GDP at 8:50 a.m. Japan time on Monday, Nov. 16, which is 6:50 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 15, under the release schedule of its Economic and Social Research Institute. The schedule notes that figures may be posted behind the release time for operational reasons.

Polymarket’s “Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?” market splits the outcome into ten brackets. As of 5:11 a.m. ET, Nov. 15, 2026, its public data feed quoted the 0.0% to 0.8% bracket highest, at 24.8 cents, with $87,116 traded across the event since it opened on Aug. 17 and $656 traded in the previous 24 hours.

What each bracket quotes

These are Polymarket’s quoted “yes” prices as of 5:11 a.m. ET, Nov. 15, 2026:

• Below -2.4%: 1.5 cents
• -2.4% to -1.6%: 19.2 cents
• -1.6% to -0.8%: 14.1 cents
• -0.8% to 0.0%: 21.5 cents
• 0.0% to 0.8%: 24.8 cents
• 0.8% to 1.6%: 10.7 cents
• 1.6% to 2.4%: 5.4 cents
• 2.4% to 3.2%: 0.6 cents
• 3.2% to 4.0%: 0.4 cents
• 4.0% or more: 1.6 cents

Books in several brackets are thin. In the -2.4% to -1.6% bracket, the best bid was 3.1 cents and the best ask 35.2 cents, and the last trade printed at 6.7 cents. The 0.8% to 1.6% bracket showed a 2-cent bid, a 19.4-cent ask and a last trade at 1.5 cents. The 0.0% to 0.8% bracket was tighter, at 24.6 cents bid and 25 cents ask, and it accounts for about $36,900 of the event’s volume, the most of any bracket.

A week earlier, at 7 a.m. ET on Nov. 8, Polymarket’s price history had the 0.0% to 0.8% bracket at 33.6 cents, -0.8% to 0.0% at 22 cents, 0.8% to 1.6% at 19.9 cents and -1.6% to -0.8% at 6.2 cents.

Kalshi lists no market on Japan’s quarterly GDP growth as of the morning of Nov. 15. Its series list includes Japanese inflation, the trade balance and Bank of Japan rate decisions, plus an India-versus-Japan GDP comparison series with no open events.

How the market settles

The rules tie settlement to Japan’s real GDP growth rate, quarter over quarter and annualized, in table 1-1 of the Cabinet Office’s first preliminary summary for the third quarter. The figure is read to one decimal place. A reading that falls exactly between two brackets goes to the higher one. Only the initial release counts; later revisions are ignored. If no third-quarter figure is out by the date the fourth-quarter data is scheduled, the market falls back to the last available quarter. The event’s listed end time is 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov. 16.

Japan’s first estimates are revised later. The second preliminary estimate for the third quarter is due Dec. 8. In the technical note to its first April-June estimate, the Cabinet Office puts the mean absolute revision from first to second estimate at 0.75 percentage points on the annualized rate, for quarters from April-June 2010 through January-March 2026.

The last release

The most recent figure is the second preliminary estimate for April-June 2026, published Sept. 8. It put real GDP growth at 0.4% from the prior quarter, or 1.4% annualized, up from the first estimate of 0.3%, or 1.1% annualized, published Aug. 17. Revised figures in the same release show 1.9% annualized growth in January-March 2026 and a 1.5% annualized contraction in July-September 2025.

Inside the April-June quarter, domestic demand fell 0.1%, private non-residential investment fell 0.9% and government consumption rose 1.7%. Imports dropped 1.7% against a 0.4% rise in exports, so net exports added 0.5 percentage points to growth.

The desk followed the same format for the UK’s third-quarter figure last week: Polymarket’s pre-release prices and how that market settled.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.