Argentina’s 2.2% October inflation settles Polymarket and Kalshi markets above the favored range
INDEC put October inflation at 2.2%, settling Polymarket's 2.2% to 2.4% bracket, which traded near 12% a day before the release.
Argentina’s consumer prices rose 2.2% in October from September, the national statistics institute INDEC reported on Nov. 12, 2026, in its October consumer price index report. The figure was up from 1.9% in September and 1.7% in August, and it settled prediction markets on both Polymarket and Kalshi in a range that traders had priced as a minority outcome a day earlier.
On Polymarket, the “Argentina Monthly Inflation – October” event resolved to the 2.2% to 2.4% bracket. On Kalshi, the October month-over-month contracts settled Yes at every strike up to “above 2.0%” and No at “above 2.2%” and higher.
What INDEC reported
The 2.2% monthly rise is the “Variación % mensual Total nacional” figure, the line Polymarket’s rules point to. Prices were up 33.1% from October 2025, and 26.3% so far in 2026.
Core prices rose 1.5% in the month. Seasonal items rose 5.5%, led by vegetables, tubers and legumes, and regulated prices rose 2.9%, led by gas and vehicle fuel. The housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels division posted the largest increase, 4.2%, which INDEC ties to gas. The report attributes the gas increases mainly to tariff changes in effect from Oct. 1 and Oct. 13, a change in the block of subsidized cubic meters, and changes to the cold-zone subsidy rules. Recreation and culture rose 3.3%. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, at 0.8%, and education, at 1.3%, rose least.
By region, Pampeana posted the highest monthly rate at 2.6% and Noreste the lowest at 1.5%. Greater Buenos Aires came in at 2.0%. INDEC’s next report, for November, is scheduled for Dec. 15, 2026.
How Polymarket priced it
Polymarket’s rules resolve the market on INDEC’s monthly change in the national CPI, before seasonal adjustment, to one decimal place. The event offered eight brackets: 1.2% or less, 1.3% to 1.5%, 1.6% to 1.8%, 1.9% to 2.1%, 2.2% to 2.4%, 2.5% to 2.7%, 2.8% to 3.0%, and 3.1% or more. It traded about $47,526 in total.
A week before the release, at 2 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, Polymarket’s price history shows 1.9% to 2.1% at 48.5% and 1.6% to 1.8% at 43.5%, with 2.2% to 2.4% at 6.25%. A day before, at 2 p.m. ET on Nov. 11, 1.9% to 2.1% had risen to 53.5%, 1.6% to 1.8% had slipped to 33.5%, and 2.2% to 2.4% stood at 12.05%. Every other bracket was under 2% at that point.
At 1 p.m. ET on Nov. 12, the day of the release, 1.9% to 2.1% traded at 63.5% and 2.2% to 2.4% at 6.55%. By 3 p.m. ET, the 2.2% to 2.4% bracket was at 99.95%.
Polymarket’s brackets closed at about 4:01 p.m. ET on Nov. 12. As of 1:16 p.m. ET, Nov. 13, 2026, Polymarket’s API shows the 2.2% to 2.4% bracket settled at Yes for $1 and every other bracket at No, with each bracket’s UMA resolution status listed as resolved. The 1.9% to 2.1% bracket was the event’s most traded, at about $22,422; the winning bracket traded about $6,175. The event’s 24-hour volume stood at about $4,353.
How Kalshi priced it
Kalshi lists the same release as “Argentina inflation rate MoM for October,” a ladder of “above” strikes from 1.0% to 2.6%. Its event lists Trading Economics’ Argentina month-over-month inflation page as the settlement source. Because 2.2% is not above 2.2%, the “above 2.2%” contract settled No.
That strike was Kalshi’s most traded, at 20,756 contracts. As of 2 p.m. ET, its last trade stood at 9 cents on Nov. 5 and 3 cents on Nov. 11. “Above 2.0%,” which settled Yes, had last traded at 30 cents and 20 cents at those times. “Above 1.8%” last traded at 63 cents and 70 cents at those points. Kalshi settled the event at about 3:35 p.m. ET on Nov. 12. As of 1:16 p.m. ET, Nov. 13, 2026, the event’s nine strikes show about 46,293 contracts traded in total and about 1,128 in the past 24 hours.
Kalshi already lists a November event, KXARMOMINF-26DEC15, and INDEC’s November report is scheduled for Dec. 15. For how these contracts read as probabilities, see our guide on how to read a prediction market price; for this week’s US inflation settlement, see Polymarket’s October CPI markets settle on 0.4% headline and 0.3% core.
Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.