Kalshi contract on Lutnick leaving Commerce in 2026 crosses 50 cents and trades at 64

Kalshi’s contract on Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick leaving his post before 2027 last traded at 64 cents as of 10:21 a.m. ET on Friday, Nov. 13, 2026, more than double its previous-day price of 30 cents. The best bid was 59 cents and the best ask 65 cents. About 223,000 contracts changed hands in the 24 hours to that time, and open interest stood at about 306,000 contracts.

The contract sits in Kalshi’s “Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?” market. Its rules read: “If Howard Lutnick leaves as Secretary of Commerce before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.” The secondary rules require “an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period” and exclude temporary leaves of absence, suspensions and recusals. The market was open with no result posted on Friday morning, and no official record shows Lutnick leaving. Each contract pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so the price is a market price, not a finding about what will happen.

The desk last covered this contract on Thursday afternoon, when it traded at 30 cents.

Three jumps in 21 hours

Kalshi’s minute-by-minute price history shows the contract climbing in three bursts.

The first came at 1:14 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 12, when the price went from 30 to 46 cents within a minute. It touched 50 cents by 1:19 p.m. and 51 cents by 1:28 p.m. The 1 to 2 p.m. hour was the busiest of the past day, at about 45,600 contracts. Earlier that day, at 11:03 a.m. ET, Axios had published a White House official’s statement that “President Trump maintains complete confidence in the secretary,” and the contract’s low in the hour from 11 a.m. to noon was 23 cents. It then closed each hour between 40 and 48 cents through the afternoon and early evening.

The second burst came on Thursday evening. Sen. Tim Scott, the Senate Banking Committee chairman, posted on X at about 7:03 p.m. ET that he was asking Lutnick and former Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang to testify, and the committee’s Republican account posted at 7:05 p.m. that Lutnick had been asked to appear on Dec. 10. At 7:15 p.m., Reuters published a story on Scott’s letters. It added, citing two people familiar with the situation, that senior White House officials were separately discussing whether to push Lutnick out. Between 7:54 and 7:58 p.m., after those posts and that story, the contract rose from 46 to 56 cents. It closed the 7 to 8 p.m. hour at 52 cents, its first hourly close above 50, on about 22,800 contracts.

Overnight the price slipped back below 50 cents, to 46 cents by 1 a.m., and it traded between 43 and 46 cents from 7 to 9 a.m. on Friday.

The third burst came Friday morning. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that Treasury, the Pentagon, the State Department and the U.S. Trade Representative’s office had favored adding Megaspeed, the Singapore company at the center of the Nvidia scandal, to the Commerce Department’s entity list for months. “But Commerce has the pen,” Bessent added. Reuters published its account of the interview at 9:17 a.m. ET and Axios at 9:18 a.m. Between 9:24 and 9:25 a.m., after those reports, the contract went from 50 to 75 cents on about 9,200 contracts. It touched 79 cents by 9:35 a.m., dipped to 54 cents by 9:46 a.m. and closed the 9 to 10 a.m. hour at 62 cents on about 22,600 contracts. It traded as high as 76 cents again at 10:06 a.m.

What else is on the record

Lutnick has agreed to the Senate hearing. A CNBC story published at 5:54 a.m. ET Friday carried a statement from Lutnick spokesperson Kristen Eichamer, given to NBC News on Thursday: “Secretary Lutnick has proactively agreed to appear voluntarily before the Banking Committee to address their questions.” Scott’s letter asks him to testify about “recent public reports about NVIDIA and the Department of Commerce’s role that raises national security concerns.”

The White House has announced no change. The Wall Street Journal reported at 5:53 p.m. ET Thursday that some of Trump’s advisers had discussed how to handle mounting internal criticism of Lutnick, and carried the same White House statement of “complete confidence.”

Polymarket

Polymarket lists a similar market, “Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?” Its Yes side last traded at 64 cents as of 10:17 a.m. ET Friday, with a midpoint of 65.5 cents, up 38 points over a day, on about $67,250 of volume in 24 hours. A shorter Polymarket contract, on Lutnick being out by Nov. 30, had a 54-cent midpoint at 10:19 a.m.

The two December contracts settle differently. On Polymarket, an announcement of Lutnick’s resignation or removal before the deadline resolves the market Yes “regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.” Kalshi’s contract requires him to actually vacate the role before 2027.

The next dated event on the record is the Dec. 10 Banking Committee hearing Scott requested, three weeks before both contracts’ year-end deadlines. Huang has been asked to appear before the same committee on Dec. 3, and House chairs have asked him for a Dec. 1 interview.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.