Kalshi odds of Jensen Huang testifying before Congress by December jump to 75 cents

Kalshi’s contract on whether former Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang will testify in front of Congress before December traded at 75 cents as of 9:13 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 12, up from 13 cents 24 hours earlier. About 106,800 contracts changed hands in that window, nearly all of the 107,040 traded since the market opened at 6:34 p.m. ET on Wednesday. Open interest stood at about 54,800 contracts.

The Kalshi market has three deadlines. The “Before Jan 2027” contract traded at 87 cents, up from 44 cents a day earlier, on about 63,100 contracts in 24 hours. The “Before Jul 2027” contract was at 91 cents, up from 79 cents, on about 25,800 contracts.

When the price moved

The move came on the day Huang resigned as Nvidia’s president and CEO, effective immediately. Kalshi’s trade records show the December contract at 9 cents shortly before 9 a.m. ET Thursday and as low as 4 cents just after 9 a.m. From about 9:15 to 10:55 a.m. it traded between 7 and 53 cents, mostly in the high teens and twenties.

At 10:24 a.m. ET, CNBC’s live coverage of the resignation reported that House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Brian Mast, R-Fla., had told reporters Huang was willing to testify as soon as next week. “We heard back from their team last night,” Mast said. “We’re negotiating which day it’s going to be.” The same report noted that the parameters were still being worked out and that it was not clear whether Huang would testify publicly or behind closed doors.

The contract reached 50 cents in the five minutes before 11 a.m. ET and reached 96 cents at 11:23 a.m., with about 9,500 contracts trading between 11:15 and 11:25 a.m. At 11:25 a.m., CNBC posted a further update: Mast had told reporters that Huang will testify before Congress ahead of Thanksgiving. “He has agreed to come,” Mast said. That update described the session as likely under oath and transcribed, with multiple committees involved. Every hourly close since noon ET has fallen between 72 and 83 cents.

Earlier that morning, House Select Committee on China Chairman John Moolenaar issued a statement at 10:15 a.m. ET calling Huang’s departure “an unfortunate end that could have been avoided” and urging Congress to pass export control legislation in the year-end defense bill. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, wrote that Huang, Nvidia executives and the board “still owe Congress answers about the company’s compliance with U.S. export controls.”

The request on the table

The appearance under negotiation traces to a Nov. 5 press release from the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Mast, Moolenaar and House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rick Crawford sent Huang a letter requesting that he appear before their committees for “a joint, closed-door briefing” on his interactions with Megaspeed executive Alice Huang, whom the release describes as “a publicly reported People’s Republic of China (PRC) intelligence asset,” and on Nvidia’s security protocols against foreign adversary espionage. The chairmen asked for the briefing on Nov. 18, 2026, and asked Huang to accept that date or offer another by Nov. 11.

What the contract counts

The December contract pays “Yes” if Huang testifies in front of Congress before Dec. 1, 2026. Kalshi’s rules define “testified” as meaning that Huang “appeared before Congress (in-person, remotely, or virtually), was sworn in or affirmed, or otherwise appeared in an official proceeding where testimony was compelled or authorized by the committee, and provided substantive answers to questions regarding the subject matter of the hearing.”

The payout criteria also list “Depositions conducted under congressional authority” and “Testifying in a closed-door or classified session.” A transcribed interview, deposition or hearing not conducted under oath qualifies if it is “officially authorized by the committee and conducted under penalty of making false statements to Congress (18 U.S.C. § 1001),” provided Huang gives at least one substantive answer. The rules exclude “informal staff-level conversations,” “media events on Capitol grounds,” “personal statements to individual members of Congress,” and “written correspondence with committee members or staff.” Kalshi lists the three House committees, C-SPAN and major news outlets among its settlement sources.

Polymarket lists a narrower question. Its “Jensen Huang publicly testifies before Congress by…?” market, listed Thursday afternoon, counts only testimony that is publicly accessible live, and its rules state that closed-door testimony or depositions do not qualify. Its Dec. 31, 2026, contract last traded at 33 cents as of 9:14 p.m. ET, on about $3,200 in volume.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.