Kalshi self-certifies Duke admissions-statistics contract in CFTC filing

KalshiEX LLC (Kalshi), a CFTC-registered exchange, notified the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission on October 19, 2026 that it is self-certifying an event contract on Duke University’s first-year admissions statistics, with the initial listing set for after the close of business on October 20, 2026.

The self-certification was submitted under Section 5c(c) of the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC Regulation 40.2(a) and signed by Xavier Sottile, Kalshi’s head of markets.

Kalshi filed the contract under the rulebook name DUKEADMIT, categorized as a non-U.S.-government economic and demographic measure in the exchange’s internal Education category.

Kalshi said the listing is dated the day after the notice because of limitations of the commission’s online submission portal and that it intends to offer the contract as a custom listing.

Contract terms and resolution

The contract’s underlying is the admissions rate or applicant number for first-time, first-year applicants to Duke for a given admissions season, as first made public by the source agency, Duke University, in Item C1 of its Common Data Set, with revisions made after expiration not counted.

Both statistics cover every first-time, first-year applicant across the Early Decision, QuestBridge National College Match and Regular Decision rounds combined, including applicants admitted off the wait list; transfer, visiting and graduate applicants are not included.

The admissions rate is calculated from unrounded totals and rounded half up to one decimal place.

Iterations will be issued on a recurring basis, generally corresponding to each successive Duke first-year admissions season, with the year identifying the fall term in which admitted students are expected to matriculate.

Only the Common Data Set governs resolution.

Figures announced in admissions-office statements, Duke Today and other university news releases, class profiles, social media posts, statements to the press, federal data systems or news reporting do not constitute publication of the underlying, and the release of admission decisions by itself does not satisfy the payout criterion.

If no data is published by the expiration date, markets resolve to the last fair price, which the exchange sets at its sole discretion, unless a “No data” strike is listed, in which case that strike resolves yes and all others resolve no.

The latest expiration date is the earlier of December 31 of the year following the admissions-season year or one week after the Common Data Set is first published.

Trading prohibitions for admissions insiders

Beyond the general prohibition on trading with material nonpublic information, Kalshi will prohibit people in the following categories from trading the contract:

• Officers, employees, student employees and contractors of Duke’s Office of Undergraduate Admissions and its Karsh Office of Undergraduate Financial Support, a group that covers admissions officers, application readers and communications staff
• Duke officers, faculty and employees who take part in or oversee first-year admissions, or can access nonpublic information about applications, decisions or statistics, including provost’s office and institutional research staff as well as staff who handle Common Data Set submissions and federal admissions reporting
• Duke communications staff who can view the Common Data Set, or its admissions figures, ahead of publication
• Staff and contractors at any application platform or vendor whose systems host, run or process Duke’s first-year application or admissions-records data
• Anyone with material nonpublic information relating to the applicant number, the number of admission offers or the admissions rate, or with the ability to influence the statistic or advance knowledge of its publication
• The immediate family and household members of anyone in those categories

On its insider-trading prohibitions page, Kalshi says its CFTC-approved exchange rules define insider trading to include trading by anyone with access to material nonpublic information, employees or affiliates of a source agency for any contract, and anyone with direct or indirect influence over the underlying event.

The exchange screens certain people at onboarding, monitors trading through internal surveillance systems and outside vendors, and freezes accounts flagged for potential insider trading until an investigation is completed, with penalties that can include fines, an order to give up profits and permanent suspension.

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