Kalshi’s 76ers contract slips to 72 cents before Thursday’s game with the Raptors

Prices on Thursday night’s Toronto Raptors-Philadelphia 76ers game moved toward Toronto on both Kalshi and Polymarket over the past day. As of 1:14 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 12, Kalshi’s “Philadelphia wins” contract last traded at 72 cents, down from 80 cents at 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, and its “Toronto wins” contract at 29 cents, up from 22 cents. At the same time, Polymarket’s moneyline market showed the Raptors at 28.5 cents and the 76ers at 71.5 cents. Its Raptors price stood at 20.5 cents at 1:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

The game is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on Thursday, with Toronto at Philadelphia as the NBA’s official injury report lists the matchup. It had not started when these prices were taken.

Each contract pays $1 if the named team wins and nothing if it loses. On Kalshi, the Philadelphia contract showed a 71-cent bid and a 72-cent ask, and the Toronto contract a 28-cent bid and a 29-cent ask, so the two last trades add up to slightly more than $1. Polymarket’s Raptors side had a 28-cent bid and a 29-cent ask, with a last trade at 29 cents.

Heaviest NBA game volume on both platforms as of Thursday afternoon

Kalshi’s public market data showed 232,938 contracts traded on the Philadelphia side and 106,277 on the Toronto side in the 24 hours to 1:12 p.m. ET, about 339,200 in all. That was the highest 24-hour total among the 30 open games in Kalshi’s NBA game series at that time; Dallas-Minnesota was next at about 292,100. It was also about 93% of the roughly 365,200 contracts traded on the game since Kalshi opened the market on the evening of Nov. 8.

Polymarket’s moneyline market recorded $260,221 in 24-hour volume as of 1:14 p.m. ET. Across all of the game’s markets, including spreads and totals, Polymarket showed $955,772 in 24-hour volume, the most of any open NBA event in its listing; Detroit-Washington was next at $197,403. Kalshi counts volume in contracts and Polymarket in dollars, so the two figures are not directly comparable, a point our NFL game prices post for Nov. 12 to Nov. 16 also makes.

What the injury report showed, and when

The move came in three legs. The first followed Philadelphia’s first injury list for the game, which appeared in the league’s injury report at 5:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday; the 4:45 p.m. report still showed the 76ers as not yet submitted. The 5:00 p.m. report listed Joel Embiid (right foot plantar fascia injury management) and LeBron James (low back/sciatica management) as questionable. In the minute in which the report’s file was created, Kalshi’s Philadelphia contract traded from 79 cents to 74 cents, after a last trade of 81 cents at 4:55 p.m., and Polymarket’s Raptors price rose from 20.5 cents to 26.5 cents by 5:30 p.m. That leg reversed overnight: by 1 a.m. ET Thursday, the Kalshi contract was back at 80 cents and Polymarket’s Raptors price at 20.5 cents.

The second leg came on Thursday morning with no change on the report. Kalshi’s Philadelphia contract was at 80 cents at 7:30 a.m. ET, traded at 78 cents in the minute ending 8:08 a.m., when about 17,000 contracts changed hands, and at 75 cents in the minute ending 9:35 a.m., which traded about 17,300. Polymarket’s Raptors price rose from 20.5 cents at 8 a.m. to 25.5 cents at 10 a.m. Every league report from 7:00 a.m. through 12:45 p.m. ET kept Embiid and James as questionable and showed Toronto’s list as not yet submitted. No record we opened gives a reason for the morning move.

The third leg came around the 1:00 p.m. ET report. That report changed James from questionable to out and carried Toronto’s first list for the game: Kawhi Leonard (left knee injury management), Scottie Barnes (left groin strain), Nate Bittle (right foot avulsion fracture) and Trayce Jackson-Davis (illness) out, and Kevin McCullar Jr. out on a G League two-way designation. Embiid stayed questionable. Kalshi’s Philadelphia contract had already touched 73 cents in the minute before 1:00 p.m., and its first trade at 72 cents came in the minute ending 1:02 p.m., after the report’s file was created. Polymarket’s Raptors price went from 26.5 cents at 1:00 p.m. to 28.5 cents by 1:11 p.m.

Over a longer window, Polymarket’s Raptors price was 40.5 cents at 2 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, a week before the game.

Kalshi’s contract resolves Yes “if Philadelphia wins the Toronto vs Philadelphia Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026,” with ESPN and the league as settlement sources. A postponed game that starts within 48 hours of its original time keeps the market open; otherwise all markets resolve to a fair price. Polymarket’s market counts the final score including overtime and resolves 50-50 if the game is canceled, does not start by 11:59 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov. 14, or is abandoned with no official result by then.

Kalshi’s market is set to close once a winner is declared. The injury report and the prices above are as of 1:14 p.m. ET Thursday and can change before tip-off.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.