Kalshi’s 8,000-case measles contract falls to 27 cents after the CDC count reaches 5,412

The United States has recorded 5,412 confirmed measles cases in 2026 as of Nov. 12, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Measles Cases and Outbreaks page, updated on Nov. 13. That is more than twice the 2,289 cases CDC counted for all of 2025, and above every yearly total CDC’s table shows after 1991, when it recorded 9,643.

The count is the settlement source for measles markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket. After the Nov. 13 update, Kalshi’s contract on more than 8,000 cases traded at 27 cents as of 7:17 a.m. ET, Nov. 14, 2026, down from 47 cents a day earlier.

What the CDC count shows

The 2026 cases come from 47 jurisdictions, plus 18 cases among international visitors. CDC lists 43 new outbreaks this year, and 96% of confirmed cases (5,216 of 5,412) are linked to outbreaks: 3,831 from outbreaks that began in 2026 and 1,385 from outbreaks that began in 2025.

Pennsylvania has 1,529 cases. South Carolina follows with 670, then Utah with 536 and Wisconsin with 505. Texas, which had 803 cases in 2025, has 192 so far this year.

Of the 2026 cases, 591 people (11%) were hospitalized, and CDC lists six deaths, a number it notes is subject to change. Ninety-six percent of cases were in people who were unvaccinated or whose vaccination status was unknown. For comparison, CDC counted 285 cases in 2024 and 59 in 2023.

The total rose by 230 in a week. The Nov. 6 version of the page, saved by the Internet Archive, gave 5,182 cases as of Nov. 5. CDC’s chart of cases by week of rash onset shows between 166 and 250 cases in each week from Sept. 6 through Nov. 1. CDC labels its 2025 and 2026 counts preliminary and subject to change.

What Kalshi prices

Kalshi’s “Measles cases in 2026?” event (KXMEASLES-26) pays out if CDC’s count of measles cases in the United States for 2026 is above each level. Under Kalshi’s contract terms, a contract stops trading at the first 10 a.m. ET after the count passes its level, and Kalshi uses the figure CDC shows at that time. Revisions after expiration are not counted. The 3,000, 4,000 and 5,000 contracts have already settled Yes.

As of 7:17 a.m. ET, Nov. 14, 2026, the open contracts last traded at:

• Above 6,000: 98 cents (728 contracts traded in 24 hours)
• Above 7,000: 75 cents, from 82 cents a day earlier (1,496 contracts)
• Above 8,000: 27 cents, from 47 cents (1,364 contracts)
• Above 9,000: 8 cents (280 contracts)
• Above 10,000: 7 cents (135 contracts)

Kalshi’s hourly price data shows the 8,000 contract last traded at 47 cents in the hour ending 3 a.m. ET on Nov. 13. It traded at 41 cents in the hour ending noon and at 27 cents by 4 p.m. ET. About 4,000 contracts changed hands across the event in the 24 hours to 7:17 a.m. ET, out of roughly 1.24 million traded since it opened.

Kalshi has also listed a 2027 event, KXMEASLES-27, which opened on the evening of Nov. 12 ET. It has 15 levels from above 500 to above 10,000 cases in 2027, uses the same CDC source, and had seen three contracts traded as of Saturday morning.

What Polymarket prices

Polymarket’s “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?” market resolves Yes for each level if CDC’s measles counter shows at least that many confirmed cases for Jan. 1 through Dec. 31, 2026, at resolution time. Only the CDC counter counts, regardless of state reports. Its levels from 500 through 5,000 have resolved Yes; the 5,000 level closed on Nov. 6, after that day’s CDC update showed 5,182 cases.

As of 7:17 a.m. ET, Nov. 14, 2026, Polymarket priced at least 7,500 cases at 30 cents, down 3.5 points in 24 hours, with $2,527 traded in that time. At least 7,000 stood at 73.5 cents, down 7 points; at least 6,500 at 95 cents; and at least 10,000 at 3.7 cents. The whole event had $3,432 in 24-hour volume and $8.42 million since it opened, $6.54 million of that on the 10,000 level.

The two platforms use different cutoffs, “above” on Kalshi and “at least” on Polymarket, and Kalshi’s levels sit at 7,000 and 8,000 while Polymarket’s sit at 7,000 and 7,500. CDC’s count stood 1,588 cases short of 7,000 and 2,588 short of 8,000 as of Nov. 12. Both markets settle on CDC’s confirmed count, which assigns each case to a year by the epidemiological week of its rash onset.

Health-linked contracts have drawn attention in Washington this week: two senators pressed HHS about markets on drug trials and FDA approvals. For how levels and settlement work, see our prediction markets glossary.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.