Kalshi’s New Zealand election market has National at 42 cents, down from 98 on Nov. 7
Kalshi prices National at 42 cents and Labour at 58 to win New Zealand's election, after National traded near 98 cents on election night.
National’s contract in Kalshi’s market on who will win the New Zealand general election last traded at 42 cents at 2:16 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 12, up from 35 cents a day earlier. Labour last traded at 58 cents, down from 65. About 256,457 National contracts and 170,171 Labour contracts changed hands in the previous 24 hours.
Those prices are far from where the market stood a few days earlier. On Nov. 7, the day New Zealand voted, National traded at 98.1 cents and Labour at 1.9 cents in the hour that ended at 5 a.m. ET.
What the contract pays on
Kalshi’s rules name the winner as “the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber.” If two parties tie on seats, the one that enters government resolves Yes; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher vote share wins. The market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner, and its listed settlement source is the New Zealand Electoral Commission.
The event also carries an “important information” note whose identifier is dated Nov. 11. It says that a party’s seats are “its share of the 120 seats allocated by party vote in the New Zealand Electoral Commission’s official results,” and that overhang seats, meaning electorate seats a party wins beyond that share, do not count.
What the count shows so far
The Electoral Commission’s preliminary results, released Nov. 7, give National 42 seats, all of them electorate seats, with no list seats. Labour has 36 seats, made up of 21 electorate seats and 15 list seats. The projected House totals 131 seats.
On the party vote, Labour is slightly ahead: 710,330 votes, or 29.36%, against National’s 706,680, or 29.21%. The Greens follow with 16 projected seats, ACT with 13, NZ First with 12, the Opportunity Party with 7 and Te Pāti Māori with 5.
Those figures cover the 2,432,403 ordinary votes counted on election night. The commission puts the number of special votes at approximately 399,365, including 96,947 overseas and dictation votes, and calls the preliminary results indicative only. By law, 10 days are allowed for overseas votes to come back. A Nov. 11 update listed the tasks before special votes are counted, including scanning rolls, receiving overseas special votes, checking special vote declarations and recounting ordinary votes. Official results are due Friday, Nov. 27, and the results site says a detailed report to the House, including the allocation of list seats, is expected by Monday, Dec. 14.
How the price moved
In the hour ending at 1 a.m. ET on Nov. 7, National stood at 60 cents and Labour at 37. National was at 94 cents by 4 a.m. ET that day and at 93.9 cents at 5 p.m. ET on Nov. 10.
The slide came on Nov. 11. National fell from 92 cents at 1 a.m. ET to 58 cents at 3 a.m. ET, with about 236,917 National contracts traded in the hour ending at 1 a.m. It recovered to 82 cents by 11 a.m. ET. In the hour ending at 1 p.m. ET, National dropped to 40 cents and Labour rose from 19 cents to 62, with about 120,656 National contracts traded in that hour.
National was at 35 cents at 2 p.m. ET on Nov. 11. It reached 51 cents at 11 p.m. ET that night and traded between 39 and 45 cents on Thursday. Lifetime volume stands at about 1,275,598 National contracts and 871,313 Labour contracts.
Polymarket’s version
Polymarket lists a market on which party wins the most seats in the House. As of 2:17 p.m. ET on Nov. 12, National’s Yes contract there was priced at 99.15 cents and Labour’s at 0.5 cents, with about $78,467 traded on National and $97,163 on Labour over 24 hours. That market resolves on “the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives,” breaks ties on party list votes, and its rules do not mention overhang seats.
Both markets now wait on the official count due Nov. 27.
For more of the desk’s market coverage, see our story on Polymarket’s odds for Spain’s next prime minister and Kalshi’s report that its midterm markets topped $2.5 billion.
Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.