Rene Haas jumps to 36 cents in next-Nvidia-CEO markets while Ian Buck and Colette Kress fall

Arm chief executive Rene Haas is now the top-priced name in both markets on who will be Nvidia’s next permanent CEO. On Kalshi’s “Who will be the next CEO of NVIDIA?” market, his contract last traded at 36 cents as of 12:16 p.m. ET, Nov. 13, 2026, up from 10 cents 24 hours earlier, on 109,161 contracts traded in 24 hours. On Polymarket’s “Next CEO of NVIDIA?”, Haas stood at 35.6 cents at the same time, up about 24 points in a day, on about $52,500 in 24-hour volume.

The two names that led the field a day ago went the other way. On Kalshi, Ian Buck traded at 22 cents, down from 39, on 205,872 contracts, and interim CEO Colette Kress at 10 cents, down from 20, on 284,515 contracts. On Polymarket, Buck was at 21.5 cents, down 15 points, on about $166,500, and Kress at 7.3 cents, down about 13 points, on about $110,300.

When the price moved

The jump came in one burst late Friday morning. Kalshi’s hourly records show the Haas contract closing every hour between 12 and 13 cents from Thursday evening through the hour ending 11 a.m. ET Friday. In its trade records, buy orders lifted it from 13 cents at 11:53 a.m. ET to 27 cents about a minute later. By 12:12 p.m. it had traded as high as 45 cents in a single sweep, before settling in the mid-30s. On Polymarket, the hourly price history for Haas read 12.8 cents at 11 a.m. ET and 32.7 cents at noon.

Who gained and who fell

Few other names rose as of 12:16 p.m. ET. On Kalshi, the Jensen Huang contract, which pays only if Huang is himself named CEO again before 2029, traded at 6 cents, up from 4, and carried the most volume in the event at 686,177 contracts. Jeff Fisher rose to 2 cents from 1, and two long shots moved from zero to 1 cent on light volume. Apple hardware chief Johny Srouji slipped to 7 cents from 8, and former Apple CEO Tim Cook to 2 cents from 4, on 369,570 contracts.

On Polymarket, “Jensen Huang (No Change)”, the outcome that pays if no successor is announced by the end of 2028, rose 3.65 points to 8.1 cents on about $195,800. Jonah Alben edged up 0.1 point to 0.65 cents. Srouji stood at about 9 cents and Cook at 4.5 cents. The whole event traded about $795,300 in 24 hours, out of roughly $1.4 million since it opened.

A day earlier the order was different. Reuters, in a Nov. 12 profile of possible successors, reported that Polymarket traders favored Buck, followed by Kress, Haas and Cook. Haas spent seven years at Nvidia, rising to vice president and general manager of its computing products business, before joining Arm in 2013, and became Arm’s CEO in 2022. Buck, who joined Nvidia in 2004, helped lead development of its CUDA software platform.

How the contracts settle

Both markets ask about a permanent chief, not the interim role Kress took on Nov. 12. Kalshi’s rule for each name reads: “If Rene Haas is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as CEO for NVIDIA before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.” An official announcement by Nvidia is enough, the person need not start the job, and interim or acting appointments do not qualify.

Polymarket settles on the first person officially announced as Huang’s successor by 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 31, 2028, whether or not that person takes office. Interim CEOs do not count. If no successor is announced by then, it resolves to “Jensen Huang (No Change)”. Its resolution source is Nvidia’s public statements, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The search itself sets the clock. In its Nov. 12 release, Nvidia’s board said it is starting a search for a permanent CEO and will consider internal and external candidates, with Kress serving as interim CEO and CFO until a successor is named. Nvidia reports third-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Tuesday, Nov. 17. EventMarkets covered the first repricing of these successor markets on Thursday, when Kress led Polymarket at 34 cents, and the House request for Huang’s testimony on Friday morning.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.