Vance climbs to 36 cents in Polymarket’s 2028 Republican nominee market

Polymarket’s contract on whether J.D. Vance wins the 2028 Republican presidential nomination last traded at 36.4 cents as of 7:17 a.m. ET, Nov. 14, 2026, with a bid of 36.4 cents and an ask of 36.5 cents. That is 5.2 points above where it stood 24 hours earlier, when Polymarket’s price history put it at 31.25 cents. The contract traded $275,940 over the previous 24 hours, the most of any name in the field, out of about $1.0 million traded across the whole nominee event in that window.

The rise came in one step. The price history shows the contract at 32.05 cents at 3:25 a.m. ET on Saturday and 37.85 cents five minutes later. It touched 37.75 cents around 5 a.m. ET, then eased to 36.45 cents by 6:25 a.m. ET and held there through 7:15 a.m. ET.

No dated announcement from Vance or his team in the hours before the 3:25 a.m. jump turned up in the records we checked, so this story names no trigger for it.

What the contract asks

The market, “Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?”, sits inside Polymarket’s “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028” event. Its rules: the market “will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No’.” The resolution source is “a consensus of official Republican Party sources,” and “any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.” The Vance contract has traded about $17.4 million since it opened.

Behind Vance on Polymarket, as of the same time, Marco Rubio last traded at 16.8 cents (down 1.4 points on the day) and Ron DeSantis at 14.9 cents. Tucker Carlson was at 4.5 cents, John McEntee at 3.1 cents, and Ted Cruz and Thomas Massie at 2.9 cents each.

The week before

Saturday’s price is close to where the contract started the week. On Nov. 7 it stood at 36.55 cents, and it drifted down to about 30.75 cents by Nov. 10. It climbed to 34.3 cents around noon ET on Nov. 12, then fell again on Nov. 13: from 33.35 cents at 5:10 a.m. ET to 31.25 cents by 5:45 a.m. ET.

Kalshi and the winner market

Kalshi lists the same question in its “2028 Republican presidential nominee” event. Its J.D. Vance contract last traded at 35 cents as of 7:17 a.m. ET, Nov. 14, 2026, with a 35-cent bid and a 36-cent ask, against a previous price of 36 cents. It traded 263,446 contracts in the previous 24 hours. Kalshi’s hourly closing prices for Vance have stayed between 34 and 36 cents since the start of Nov. 12 ET, and the hour that took in Polymarket’s 3:25 a.m. jump closed one cent higher on Kalshi, at 36 cents. Kalshi’s rules read: “If J.D. Vance wins and accepts the nomination for the Presidency for the Republican party in 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.” Its settlement sources include the Republican Party, and the market closes Nov. 7, 2028. At the same time, Rubio was at 18 cents and DeSantis at 16 cents on Kalshi.

Polymarket’s separate “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market moved in the same direction, by less. Vance last traded there at 15.4 cents as of 7:17 a.m. ET, up 2.25 points on the day, with $162,451 traded in 24 hours. That market fell from 17.25 cents to 13.55 cents early on Nov. 12 and had stayed near 13 cents until Saturday, so it remains below its level at the start of the week. Jon Ossoff led that market at 17.4 cents.

Kalshi has said it will build a 2028 presidential election hub, as we reported when it published its midterm volume figures. As of Saturday morning, the two platforms priced Vance’s nomination within about 1.5 points of each other, after stretches since Nov. 12 in which Polymarket’s price sat as much as 5 points below Kalshi’s.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.