What Kalshi and Polymarket price for October producer prices ahead of Friday’s release

The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its producer price index for October 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, Nov. 13, according to its release schedule. Kalshi lists the report as two ladders of contracts, one on the monthly change and one on the 12-month change, and Polymarket lists a bracket event on the 12-month figure. Prices below are as of 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 12.

The report follows a large September reading. In its September release, published Oct. 15, BLS reported that the PPI for final demand rose 1.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, after 0.5% in August and 0.2% in July. It was the largest monthly advance since March 2022. Before seasonal adjustment, final demand prices were up 6.3% over the 12 months ended in September, the biggest 12-month increase since December 2022.

Energy drove most of the goods increase. Final demand goods rose 2.6% in September, and more than 80% of that rise came from final demand energy, which jumped 10.8%. Gasoline alone, up 20.3%, accounted for half of the goods increase. Final demand services rose 0.8%. The index less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.5% for the month and 5.0% over 12 months.

Kalshi’s monthly and annual ladders

Kalshi’s “PPI MoM in October” event is a set of “above” contracts. Each one pays out if the month-over-month change in the PPI for final demand is strictly above its threshold. The rules use the headline figure, including food and energy, not the core measures. Because BLS reports the change to one decimal, “Above 0.4%” pays on a reading of 0.5% or higher.

As of 1:10 p.m. ET on Nov. 12, the ladder showed:

• Above 0.2%: 79 cents bid, 84 cents ask, last trade 84 cents
• Above 0.3%: 70 cents bid, 75 cents ask, last trade 70 cents
• Above 0.4%: 55 cents bid, 60 cents ask, last trade 63 cents
• Above 0.5%: 42 cents bid, 44 cents ask, last trade 50 cents
• Above 0.6%: 38 cents bid, 39 cents ask, last trade 38 cents
• Above 0.7%: 11 cents bid, 13 cents ask, last trade 14 cents
• Above 0.8%: 12 cents bid, 13 cents ask, last trade 12 cents
• Above 1.0%: 3 cents bid, 12 cents ask, last trade 5 cents

On those quotes, prices cross 50 cents between the 0.4% and 0.5% rungs. The board quoted a reading of 0.5% or more at 55 to 60 cents and a reading of 0.6% or more at 42 to 44 cents. A repeat of September’s 1.3% sits on the “Above 1.2%” rung, which last traded at 3 cents with no bid.

Trading is light. The monthly ladder has about 118,500 contracts traded since it opened on Oct. 15, close to 94,000 of them on the “Above 1.2%” rung, and about 2,800 in the past 24 hours.

Kalshi’s “PPI YoY in October” event pays out if the year-over-year change in the PPI for final demand is above each threshold. On its quotes, prices cross 50 cents between the “Above 6.5%” and “Above 6.6%” rungs:

• Above 6.3%: 68 cents bid, 78 cents ask
• Above 6.4%: 61 cents bid, 71 cents ask
• Above 6.5%: 50 cents bid, 55 cents ask, last trade 55 cents
• Above 6.6%: 40 cents bid, 50 cents ask
• Above 6.7%: 31 cents bid, 32 cents ask, last trade 31 cents
• Above 7.0%: 7 cents bid, 16 cents ask

Several rungs on this ladder last traded well outside their current quotes, so the bids and asks give the more current picture. The event has about 33,100 contracts traded in total and about 3,000 in the past 24 hours. Both Kalshi events list Trading Economics pages as their settlement source, close at 8:29 a.m. ET on Friday and close early once the data is released.

Polymarket’s 12-month brackets

Polymarket’s “PPI YoY – October 2026” event resolves on the unadjusted 12-month change in final demand PPI in the BLS release, at one decimal, and not on core PPI. If BLS does not publish on schedule, the market can stay open until the next scheduled PPI release, and if the data still is not out by then, it resolves on the most recent month available.

As of 1:10 p.m. ET on Nov. 12, Polymarket displayed these prices:

• 6.8% or more: 32.5 cents (32 cents bid, 33 cents ask)
• 6.7%: 6.9 cents
• 6.6%: 14.4 cents
• 6.5%: 26.5 cents (16 cents bid, 37 cents ask)
• 6.4%: 20.5 cents (10.1 cents bid, 30.8 cents ask)
• 6.3%: 5.3 cents
• 6.2% or lower, combined across four brackets: about 9 cents

The event has about $60,300 in total volume and about $1,750 in the past 24 hours, with about $32,850 of the total on the 6.8%-or-more bracket. Several brackets carry wide spreads, so the displayed prices add to about 115 cents rather than 100.

Polymarket’s public search showed no monthly October PPI event when these prices were taken.

The release comes three days after October’s consumer price report, on which Polymarket’s CPI brackets settled at 0.4% headline and 0.3% core. That CPI report had a gap: BLS could not publish most 12-month changes because it collected no October 2025 survey data during a lapse in appropriations. September’s PPI tables do include an October 2025 final demand reading, a 0.1% monthly rise and a 2.8% 12-month change. After the CPI report, Polymarket’s January Fed hike contract crossed 50%. The November PPI report is scheduled for Dec. 15.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.