Kalshi says midterm markets topped $2.5 billion, nearly double the 2024 cycle
Kalshi says its 2026 midterm markets drew more than $2.5 billion in volume and that market favorites won 479 of 487 resolved races.
Trading on Kalshi’s 2026 midterm election markets passed $2.5 billion, the exchange said on November 4, 2026, compared with $1.3 billion for the 2024 election cycle. The figures come from Kalshi’s own midterms recap, published the morning after the vote. They are the company’s own numbers.
How the favorites did
Kalshi says that of 487 races resolved as of 6:00 a.m. ET on November 4, the candidate its traders favored won 479, or 98%. By its count, favorites won 356 of 360 House races, 32 of 33 Senate races and 33 of 34 governor’s races. As of the recap, several contests, including the Alaska and Mississippi Senate races, were still unresolved.
On election night, Kalshi says, its market for House control hit 99% at 8:10 p.m. ET and its Senate control market passed 99% at 9:00 p.m. ET.
The recap also notes where markets fell short. Traders had favored a “blue tsunami” of at least 230 Democratic House seats and 51 Senate seats, but Kalshi says they were not pricing in what is likely to be the biggest Democratic wave since 2008.
Two races Kalshi points to
Kalshi highlights Texas’s 15th District, its highest-volume House market, where traders favored the Democrat from March 2026 while Sabato’s Crystal Ball still rated the seat Likely Republican. Democrat Bobby Pulido won by nearly 25 points, according to the recap.
In North Carolina’s Senate race, Kalshi says its market priced a 9.5-point Roy Cooper margin when early voting began on October 15, moving above 15 points by election eve. Cooper won by nearly 20, the recap says.
Attention moves to 2028
Kalshi says it will now build a 2028 presidential election hub. It is not the only exchange looking ahead: ProphetX self-certified 2028 presidential winner, party and nominee contracts with the CFTC on November 4, according to the agency’s product filings list.
By Kalshi’s own figures, a midterm year without a presidential race drew nearly twice the volume it reported for the 2024 cycle, though the recap does not say exactly what the 2024 figure covers. The accuracy figures are the company’s own scorecard, though, counted on its terms and before every race was called.
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