Polymarket odds of a Jensen Huang exit announcement by year-end jump to 36 cents
Polymarket's contract on an announced Huang exit as Nvidia CEO by Dec. 31 rose 17 points in a day to 36 cents, with $238,000 traded.
Traders on Polymarket sharply raised the price of an announced exit for Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang late Wednesday afternoon. As of 5:09 p.m. ET on Nov. 11, 2026, the “Yes” side of the market asking whether Huang’s resignation or removal as CEO is announced by Dec. 31, 2026, last traded at 36 cents, up 17 points over 24 hours. The best bid and offer stood at 33 and 34 cents.
The contract has traded about $238,000 in the past 24 hours and about $962,000 since it opened on Nov. 8. A Yes share pays $1 if the market resolves Yes and nothing if it resolves No, so a 36-cent price is a market price, not a finding about what will happen.
Most of the move came in one hour
Polymarket’s hourly price history shows how quickly the jump arrived. From its launch on Nov. 8 until 4 p.m. ET Wednesday, the December contract’s midpoint held between about 10.5 and 17.5 cents. It reached 26.5 cents at 5 p.m. ET and 34.5 cents by 5:04 p.m. ET.
The two longer-dated markets in the same event moved with it. The contract for an announcement by March 31, 2027, last traded at 46 cents, up 18.5 points in 24 hours, on about $93,000 of volume that day. The contract for Dec. 31, 2027, last traded at 59 cents, up 16 points, on about $36,000. Across all three, the event has drawn about $1.18 million in volume.
No public record opened for this story ties a specific event to Wednesday afternoon’s jump, so no cause is given here. Nvidia has filed no Form 8-K with the SEC since Sept. 3, 2026.
For background, the latest related item in Nvidia’s newsroom is a Nov. 10 statement that the board’s independent members retained Joon H. Kim, a former acting U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, and his firm, Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, to conduct an independent investigation first announced on Sunday, Nov. 8.
How the Polymarket contract settles
The rules pay Yes if Huang, Nvidia or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce by 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 31 that he has resigned or been removed as CEO, or will be. A future-dated departure counts if it is meant to take effect within 18 months, and stepping down to take another role at Nvidia counts as resignation.
Several things do not count: temporary leaves of absence or suspensions, statements that Huang is considering leaving, conditional statements, a pending or refused resignation offer, and media reports that he plans to leave. Official information from Huang and Nvidia is the primary resolution source, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi’s version requires an actual departure
Kalshi lists a similar ladder under “Nvidia CEO leaving,” with a key difference in its rules. Its contracts resolve Yes only if Huang actually leaves the CEO post and that is announced before the deadline; announcing a future departure alone does not qualify. Kalshi names Bloomberg as the settlement source.
As of 5:08 p.m. ET Wednesday, Kalshi’s contract for a departure before Jan. 1, 2027, last traded at 32 cents, up from 17 cents a day earlier, with about 230,900 contracts traded in 24 hours. The before-July 1, 2027, contract stood at 56 cents and the before-Jan. 1, 2028, contract at 65 cents.
Those prices are far above where Kalshi’s own blog put the ladder on Nov. 9, when it reported the July 2027 contract had fallen back to roughly 30% and the January 2028 contract had settled at 36%. Kalshi also opened a separate set of markets at 3 p.m. ET Wednesday on whether Huang leaves Nvidia’s board; none had traded as of the same pull.
Because the two platforms define the event differently, their prices are not a like-for-like comparison: Polymarket can pay on an announcement of a future exit, while Kalshi needs the exit itself. Readers who follow these ladders can compare how the desk covered a similar exit market in Hegseth exit odds fall to 12.5% on Polymarket after House blocks impeachment, and an earlier tech-sector move in Polymarket odds of a sub-$1.25 trillion Anthropic debut fall to 16 cents.
Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.