Polymarket odds of a sub-$1.25 trillion Anthropic debut fall to 16 cents
Polymarket's lowest Anthropic IPO market-cap bracket fell about 12 points in a day, as the $1.25T to $1.5T range leads at 36 cents.
Traders on Polymarket have cut the odds that Anthropic closes its first trading day worth less than $1.25 trillion. As of 10:11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 11, the “less than $1.25T” bracket in Polymarket’s Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap event traded at about 16 cents, down roughly 12 points over 24 hours by Polymarket’s own one-day change figure. That bracket alone saw about $106,000 change hands in the period.
The money has moved up one rung. The $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion bracket now leads the event at about 36 cents, and $1.5 trillion to $1.75 trillion sits at about 29 cents, up about 8 points on the day. The $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion bracket trades near 12 cents and $2 trillion to $2.25 trillion near 6 cents. Every bracket at $2.25 trillion or higher is under 1 cent, and so is the bracket that pays if Anthropic does not go public by the end of 2027.
The event has drawn about $5.16 million in total volume since it opened on June 1, including about $594,000 in the last 24 hours across all brackets.
What the filing set
On Nov. 10, Anthropic filed the second amendment to its registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission. EDGAR shows it was accepted at 6:29 a.m. ET. The prospectus puts the estimated IPO price at $70 to $78 per share. Anthropic is selling 801,351,354 Class A shares, and selling stockholders are offering another 23,648,646. Underwriters have an option to buy up to 123,750,000 more shares from the company. Anthropic has applied to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the symbol “ANT,” with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley listed first among 22 underwriters.
The prospectus counts 7,427,991,791 Class A shares and 5,658,680,800 Class N shares to be outstanding after the offering and a concurrent private placement of Class N stock, plus one share each of Class T and Class F; the Class N figure assumes the $74 midpoint, so it shifts with the final price. The filing does not tell anyone where the stock will close on its first day, and that closing price, multiplied by shares outstanding, is what this market settles on. Neither the market’s rules nor the filing settles which share count a listing page will show.
How the price got here
The bracket’s path over the past day was not a straight line. Polymarket’s hourly price history shows the sub-$1.25 trillion bracket at about 17 cents at 6 a.m. ET, just before the filing was accepted at 6:29 a.m., and at about 36 cents by 8 a.m. ET. It then eased through Tuesday and fell sharply in the evening, from about 24 cents at 7 p.m. ET to about 12 cents by 10 p.m. ET. It hovered near 12 cents overnight, jumped back to about 19 cents around 3 a.m. ET Wednesday and has slipped to about 16 cents since.
A week ago the picture looked different. In late morning on Nov. 4, the sub-$1.25 trillion bracket stood near 8 cents and the $1.25 trillion to $1.5 trillion bracket near 11 cents, while $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion stood near 31 cents.
Early Wednesday, at 5:45 a.m. ET, CoinDesk reported, citing the Financial Times, that Anthropic’s bankers are considering an IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion or more, above Tuesday’s roughly $1.4 trillion target. That report came after the bracket’s evening drop, not before it. CoinDesk’s report does not say which share count the valuation figures use.
How the market settles
The contract resolves on Anthropic’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading, defined as shares outstanding multiplied by that closing price. Polymarket will use the primary exchange’s official listing page, or another reliable source if the figure is not shown there. A value that lands exactly on a boundary goes to the higher bracket. If the first session is cut short, the abbreviated session’s official close counts. If no IPO happens by 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 31, 2027, the market resolves to “No IPO by December 31, 2027.”
Kalshi does not list an Anthropic market-cap market as of Wednesday morning. Its open Anthropic IPO markets ask other questions, such as which bank will lead the deal and when Anthropic will officially announce an IPO.
Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.