Hegseth exit odds fall to 12.5% on Polymarket after House blocks impeachment

Traders on Polymarket sharply cut the odds that Pete Hegseth leaves his post as Secretary of Defense by the end of the year on Tuesday, a day that ended with House Republicans voting to block an effort to impeach him.

As of 7:10 p.m. ET on November 10, 2026, Yes shares in the market “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?” were priced at 12.5 cents, an implied probability of 12.5%. That was 22 points lower than 24 hours earlier and 27.5 points lower than a week before.

About $333,700 changed hands in the market over the previous 24 hours, about 13% of its roughly $2.65 million in lifetime volume. The best bid stood at 12 cents and the best ask at 13 cents.

What the House vote did

The House voted 211-204 to send Rep. Thomas Massie’s resolution back to committee, a procedural move meant to stop the impeachment push outright, the Associated Press reported. Reuters described the motion as referring eight articles of impeachment to the Republican-led House Judiciary Committee, a step Massie warned would kill them. No other Republicans joined Massie, and 11 Democrats did not vote.

Massie, a Kentucky Republican leaving Congress in January, filed the resolution on Monday. Its eight counts focused largely on the war in Iran and also cited military actions in Yemen and Venezuela. At a Pentagon news conference on Tuesday, Hegseth called the effort “a political spectacle” and argued that Massie’s complaints were policy disagreements, not impeachable offenses. President Donald Trump praised the outcome on social media.

The vote does not close the matter. Democrats, who won control of Congress in last week’s midterm elections, take charge of the House and Senate in January, and Reuters noted they could try again. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, expected to become the next speaker, and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer both backed impeachment. Prediction markets had favored a Democratic win: Kalshi’s midterm slate topped $2.5 billion in trading by the exchange’s count, and its traders had favored at least 230 Democratic House seats.

A volatile week

Polymarket’s hourly price history shows wide swings. The contract sat near 39.5 cents at 8 p.m. ET on November 3, election night, then reached a weekly high of 68.5 cents at noon on November 4. It fell back quickly, rebounded to 55.5 cents early Thursday, then dropped to about 41.5 cents by Thursday evening, touched 30.5 cents on Friday afternoon and climbed back to 47 cents on Sunday.

On Monday, the day Massie filed his resolution, the price slipped from 46.5 cents in the early afternoon to 34.5 cents by 6 p.m. ET. It held near 33.5 cents overnight, then fell through Tuesday to 25.5 cents by 2 p.m. ET. The steepest leg came in the early evening, from 25.5 cents at 5 p.m. to 20.5 cents at 6 p.m. and 12.5 cents at 7 p.m. ET.

Kalshi showed a similar move. As of about 7:11 p.m. ET, its contract on whether Hegseth is out before January 1, 2027, last traded at 13 cents, against 36 cents a day earlier, with about 193,000 contracts traded in 24 hours. Kalshi’s contract for an exit before December 1 last traded at 4 cents, while its contract for an exit before February 1, 2027, last traded at 40 cents.

How the market resolves

The Polymarket contract resolves Yes if Hegseth ceases to be Secretary of Defense for any period between the market’s creation and December 31 (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date resolves it Yes immediately, even if the departure takes effect later. Otherwise it resolves No.

The resolution source is official information from Hegseth and the U.S. government, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. An impeachment vote on its own is not one of the triggers; the rules turn only on Hegseth leaving the post or an announced resignation or removal.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.