Polymarket’s October CPI markets settle on 0.4% headline and 0.3% core

Polymarket’s two October inflation events have settled. “October Inflation US – Monthly” paid out on its 0.4% bracket, and “Core CPI MoM – October 2026” paid out on 0.3%. Both markets closed at about 10:31 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 10, two hours after the government’s report came out.

The record is the Bureau of Labor Statistics release for October 2026, published at 8:30 a.m. ET on Nov. 10. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, after 0.6% in September. The index excluding food and energy rose 0.3%, the same as in September and August.

Both Polymarket events resolve on those exact one-decimal figures. The headline market uses the seasonally adjusted monthly change in CPI-U, and the core market uses the seasonally adjusted monthly change in the index less food and energy.

What the brackets priced before the release

As of 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 9, a day before the report, Polymarket’s hourly price history had the headline 0.3% bracket at 44 cents and 0.2% at 39.5 cents. The 0.4% bracket traded at 9 cents and 0.5% at 1.6 cents.

A week earlier, as of 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 3, the same board showed 0.3% at 46 cents, 0.2% at 27 cents, 0.4% at 14.5 cents and 0.5% at 7.8 cents.

The last hourly print before the release, at 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 10, had 0.3% at 42.5 cents, 0.2% at 40 cents and 0.4% at 15.7 cents. By 9 a.m. ET, the 0.4% bracket stood at 99.95 cents.

The core board looked different. As of 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 9, the 0.2% bracket led at 48.5 cents, with 0.3% at 32 cents and 0.4% at 3.5 cents. On Nov. 3 at the same hour, 0.2% was at 41.5 cents, 0.3% at 36 cents and 0.4% at 10.5 cents. At 8 a.m. ET on release day, 0.2% stood at 54.5 cents and 0.3% at 35.5 cents. An hour later, 0.3% was at 99.95 cents.

As of 9:12 a.m. ET on Nov. 11, Polymarket’s API showed about $62,365 traded on the headline event and about $68,510 on the core event. The core 0.2% bracket drew the most money in either event, about $33,958, against about $12,425 on the winning 0.3% bracket. On the headline side, the winning 0.4% bracket was the busiest, at about $18,582.

Kalshi settled the same way

Kalshi lists the same releases as a ladder of “above” thresholds rather than single brackets, and its October events settled on 0.4% and 0.3% as well. Its headline “Above 0.3%” contract, which pays on 0.4% or higher, resolved Yes, and “Above 0.4%” resolved No. On core, “Above 0.2%” resolved Yes and “Above 0.3%” resolved No.

Kalshi’s headline “Above 0.3%” last traded at 17 cents as of 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 3, at 13 cents as of 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 9 and at 21 cents as of 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 10. Its final trade before the 8:29 a.m. ET close was at 9 cents, with about 322,384 contracts traded in total. Core “Above 0.2%” stood at 45 cents as of 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 3 and 42 cents as of 8 a.m. ET on Nov. 9, and its last trade before the 8:25 a.m. ET close was at 12 cents, with about 194,650 contracts traded.

What else the report showed

The release also has a gap in its annual figures. BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations, so it cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for most indexes. Before seasonal adjustment, the all-items index rose 0.2% for the month.

Energy rose 0.7% after a 5.2% jump in September, and food rose 0.5%. Shelter, up 0.3%, accounted for more than 30% of the monthly all-items increase. Used cars and trucks fell 1.2%.

Fed contracts also moved on Nov. 10 and 11. EventMarkets reported that Polymarket’s December no-change contract fell below 4% on Nov. 10, and that the January hike contract crossed 50% early on Nov. 11. The November CPI report is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 10.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.