Polymarket prices UK Q3 GDP growth at 0.6% to 0.7% ahead of Thursday’s ONS release

Traders on Polymarket put the most weight on UK economic growth of 0.6% to 0.7% in the third quarter of 2026, a day before the Office for National Statistics publishes its first estimate. As of 9:11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 11, the “0.6–0.7%” bracket traded at 63.5 cents, an implied chance of about 64%.

The next bracket up, “0.8–0.9%”, stood at 26.1 cents. “0.4–0.5%” was at 6 cents. Every other outcome was priced under 1 cent: 0.5 cents for 1.0% or more, 0.55 cents for 0.2% to 0.3%, 0.4 cents for 0.0% to 0.1% and 0.3 cents for a contraction.

The event, “UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?”, had about $59,600 in total volume across its seven brackets at the time of the pull, with roughly $400 traded in the previous 24 hours. Trading is thin: the leading bracket showed a bid of 62 cents and an ask of 65 cents.

The release and the rules

The ONS release calendar lists GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: July to September 2026 for Thursday, Nov. 12, at 7:00 a.m. UK time, which is 2:00 a.m. ET.

Under the market’s rules, the contract settles on real GDP growth for Q3 2026 against the previous quarter, as first printed in that release. Later revisions do not count. The ONS reports the rate to one decimal place, and that is the precision the market uses, so a printed 0.7% falls in the “0.6–0.7%” bracket and 0.8% in the next one. The event’s end date is 11:59 p.m. ET on Nov. 12.

Where the last figures stood

The latest quarterly figure is in the ONS quarterly national accounts for April to June 2026, published Sept. 30. It put Q2 growth at 0.5%, revised up from the 0.4% first estimate, after unrevised growth of 0.6% in Q1. Services rose 0.6% in Q2, construction 0.8%, and production fell 0.1%.

Two of the three months in Q3 already have monthly estimates. The August monthly GDP bulletin, released Oct. 15, showed growth of 0.4% in July and 0.1% in August. GDP grew 0.7% in the three months to August compared with the three months to May, led by a 0.9% rise in services. That rolling measure is not the one the market settles on, which compares July to September with April to June. No ONS monthly figure for September had been published as of Nov. 11.

For this market, only the first print counts. The ONS says that since 2000 the mean absolute revision between a first estimate and the figure published three years later is 0.24 percentage points.

How the price moved this week

The leading bracket has gained ground over the past week. Polymarket’s price history shows “0.6–0.7%” at 57.1 cents at 10 a.m. ET on Nov. 4, a low of 44.8 cents at 1 a.m. ET on Nov. 5, and a high of 64.1 cents at 6 p.m. ET on Nov. 10. Over the same week, “0.8–0.9%” eased from about 31 cents to a low of 23.3 cents on Nov. 10 before ticking back to 26.1. The “0.4–0.5%” bracket peaked at 15 cents on Nov. 6 and fell back to about 6 cents.

Kalshi lists no UK quarterly GDP market. Its only UK GDP series, a monthly growth contract, had no open events when checked on Nov. 11.

On the US side, Polymarket’s January Fed hike contract crossed 50% early on Nov. 11, after most of its climb came on Nov. 10, the day of the October CPI report. For the UK market, Thursday’s first print decides the outcome, and any later ONS revision to Q3 will not change it.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.