Polymarket prices an 83% chance of a Huang exit as Nvidia’s board weighs his future
Polymarket's year-end contract on an announced Huang exit hit 83 cents late Wednesday after reports Nvidia's board was meeting on whether to oust him.
Traders on Polymarket now treat Jensen Huang’s departure as Nvidia’s chief executive as the likely outcome. As of 11:08 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 11, the contract on whether Huang’s resignation or removal is officially announced by Dec. 31 last traded at 83 cents, up 67 points in 24 hours, with about $3.3 million traded on that contract alone over the day.
The move came after a run of reports late Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal reported that Nvidia’s board was preparing to oust Huang, and Reuters and CNBC each reported, citing a source and its own confirmation respectively, that the board was meeting that evening to decide whether to remove him. As of 11:10 p.m. ET, Nvidia had not announced a decision.
How the dated contracts line up
The Polymarket event splits the question into deadlines, and the curve shows how traders are weighing timing. As of 11:08 p.m. ET, the contracts last traded at:
- by Nov. 11: 18 cents
- by Nov. 12: 66 cents
- by Nov. 13: 68 cents
- by Nov. 30: 81 cents
- by Dec. 31, 2026: 83 cents
- by March 31, 2027: 89 cents
- by Dec. 31, 2027: 92 cents
The whole event has drawn about $9 million in volume, roughly $8.3 million of it in the past 24 hours. The year-end contract stood at 36 cents as of 5:09 p.m. ET when EventMarkets covered it earlier on Wednesday, so it has more than doubled in a matter of hours.
The rules matter here. A “Yes” needs Huang, Nvidia or their authorized representatives to publicly and definitively announce that he has resigned or been removed, or will be, as CEO. Leaves of absence, suspensions and statements that he is considering leaving do not count, and the departure has to be framed as taking effect within 18 months.
Kalshi lists a similar ladder. As of the same time, its contract on Huang leaving before Nov. 13 traded at 62 cents and the one for before Nov. 20 at 76 cents, while the contract for before Nov. 12 sat at 14 cents after about 4.7 million contracts changed hands on it in a day. Kalshi’s rules count an announcement by the CEO or on his behalf that he has left the position, so its contracts need the exit itself, while Polymarket’s also pay on an announced future departure. The two ladders are not a like-for-like comparison.
Who the market sees next
A separate Polymarket market on Nvidia’s next CEO, which has drawn about $72,000 in volume, put Ian Buck, who runs the data center business, at 36 cents and chief financial officer Colette Kress at about 28 cents. “Jensen Huang (No Change)” traded at 13 cents. That market settles on the first successor officially announced by Dec. 31, 2028; interim chiefs do not count.
Huang, 63, has no obvious successor, according to Reuters, which also cited a Bloomberg report that Nvidia’s board had been working with an outside firm to identify potential replacements. Under Nvidia’s bylaws, a majority of the 11 directors can remove the CEO with or without cause.
The backdrop
On Sunday, Huang told employees he had been unfaithful to his wife, and Nvidia’s board has opened an investigation into the spying allegations involving his relationship with a woman whom US intelligence reportedly believes is a Chinese spy. The board hired the law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz. On Wednesday The New York Times reported a second relationship, with an Nvidia executive. Nvidia did not respond to Reuters or CNBC on that report.
Nvidia shares fell more than 8% in after-hours trading Wednesday, and the company is due to report quarterly results on Nov. 17.
For traders, timing is now the open question as much as the outcome. Polymarket’s Nov. 11 contract, at 14 cents as of 11:10 p.m. ET, expires at 11:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday and the Nov. 12 contract a day later; each settles “No” if no qualifying announcement comes by its deadline, while the year-end and 2027 contracts stay open.
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