Polymarket’s UK Q3 GDP market settles on 0.6% to 0.7% after the ONS reports 0.7% growth

The UK economy grew 0.7% in the third quarter of 2026, and Polymarket’s market on the figure settled on the band traders had backed. The Office for National Statistics published its GDP first quarterly estimate on Thursday, Nov. 12, putting real GDP growth for July to September at 0.7% quarter on quarter, after 0.5% in the second quarter.

That put the result at the top edge of the 0.6% to 0.7% bucket in Polymarket’s “UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?” market. The bucket resolved “Yes” and the other six (“Negative”, 0.0% to 0.1%, 0.2% to 0.3%, 0.4% to 0.5%, 0.8% to 0.9% and 1.0% or more) resolved “No”. The markets were marked resolved at 9:02 a.m. UK time, about two hours after the release. The event drew about $66,000 in volume in total.

What the market priced before the release

As of 9:11 a.m. ET on Wednesday, when EventMarkets previewed the release, the 0.6% to 0.7% band led at 63.5 cents. In Polymarket’s hourly price history, that band traded around the same level a day before the 7 a.m. UK release slot, and at 44.8 cents a week earlier, so its price rose over the final week.

The main alternative was the band just above. The 0.8% to 0.9% bucket was at about 26 cents a day before the release and 33.6 cents in the last reading before it. The 0.4% to 0.5% band, which would have matched the second quarter’s pace, was at about 7 cents a day out. Every other bucket was under 1 cent by then.

The rules tie settlement to the first estimate only. Polymarket’s market resolves on the quarter-on-quarter figure in the “GDP first quarterly estimate, UK” release, and later revisions do not change the outcome. The same release also revised the monthly path: the ONS now shows no growth in August, down from 0.1% previously, alongside 0.4% in July and 0.2% in September.

What drove the quarter

Services did most of the work. Services output rose 0.9% in the quarter, with business-facing services up 1.0% and consumer-facing services up 0.5%. Information and communication grew 2.1%, led by computer programming and consultancy, up 4.4%. The ONS noted that this industry has been the largest driver of GDP growth across 2026, citing evidence that many of the businesses reporting the biggest turnover gains are involved in artificial intelligence and cloud computing, while adding that the exact impact is difficult to quantify. Administrative and support services rose 4.1%.

Production edged up 0.1%, and construction fell 0.7%, with private housing new work down 4.7%. On the spending side, household consumption rose 0.6% and gross fixed capital formation 1.7%, while business investment grew 0.4%. GDP was 1.9% higher than a year earlier, and real GDP per head rose 0.7% on the quarter.

The ONS lists its next release of this series for Dec. 22, 2026, and its bulletin notes that early GDP estimates are subject to revision. Polymarket’s settled market will not move with any revision, because its rules lock in the first figure.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.