Polymarket odds of Feijóo becoming Spain’s next prime minister slip to 83 cents

Polymarket traders have trimmed, but not abandoned, their view that People’s Party leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo will be Spain’s next prime minister. As of 7:10 a.m. ET on Thursday, Nov. 12, the Feijóo contract in Polymarket’s “Next Prime Minister of Spain?” market last traded at 83 cents, down 11 points in 24 hours, with about $159,000 traded on it over the day.

The Polymarket event has drawn about $3.6 million in total volume. Its hourly price history shows Feijóo at 93.5 cents early on Wednesday afternoon UTC, easing to the high 80s through Wednesday night, then dropping to 82.5 cents in the two hours to 12:00 UTC on Thursday. EventMarkets did not find a dated event that clearly preceded the move, so this report does not name a cause.

The other side of the board moved with it. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez traded at 13.8 cents, up 7.35 points in 24 hours, on about $90,000 of volume. Vox leader Santiago Abascal was under 1 cent.

What the contract pays on

The market settles on the next person who officially takes office as prime minister by March 31, 2028. Under its rules, that person must win a confidence vote in the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in, forming a new government. An interim or caretaker prime minister who does not win that vote does not count, and if no one takes office by the deadline the market resolves to “Other.”

That makes it a bet on government formation, not on the election night count. Polymarket’s separate election-winner market, which settles on the party with the most seats in the 350-seat Congress, priced the People’s Party at 84 cents, little changed in 24 hours, and the Socialists (PSOE) at 16 cents as of the same time. A third contract, on whether the People’s Party and Vox together win at least 176 seats, last traded at 91 cents, down 4.5 points in a day.

Kalshi lists a similar question, on who becomes prime minister after the next general election. Its Feijóo contract last traded at 86 cents, against a previous price of 90 cents, and its Sánchez contract at 11 cents. Trading there was thin, at about 105 contracts on Feijóo in 24 hours.

What the polls show

Spain votes on Nov. 29 in a snap election called by Sánchez. In a Reuters roundup of polls on Nov. 9, surveys showed the People’s Party beating the Socialists but needing Vox for a majority. A SocioMetrica poll for El Español projected about 200 seats for the PP and Vox combined; Sigma Dos for El Mundo put the pair at 199 seats and the Socialists at 105; and a 40dB survey for El País showed the gap between the PP and the Socialists narrowing to 2 points, while the combined right still reached around 190 seats.

That is where the markets part ways. The election-winner contract only needs the People’s Party to finish first in seats. The prime minister contract also needs Feijóo to win a confidence vote in Congress, and on the Reuters polling the PP would need Vox to reach a majority.

The Spanish contracts will settle in two stages. The Nov. 29 count decides the seat markets, while the prime minister market stays open until a government is sworn in or the March 31, 2028 deadline passes. Election contracts remain contested in the US, where an Ohio bill would define trading them as gambling; for other recent moves on political markets, see EventMarkets’ report on Hegseth exit odds.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.