Rene Haas climbs back to 29 cents in next-Nvidia-CEO markets as Ian Buck slips to 16

Arm chief executive Rene Haas is climbing again in the markets on who will be Nvidia’s next permanent CEO, after giving up most of a Friday midday spike. On Kalshi’s “Who will be the next CEO of NVIDIA?” market, his contract last traded at 29 cents as of 6:13 a.m. ET, Nov. 14, 2026, up from 13 cents a day earlier, on 184,228 contracts traded in 24 hours.

veteran Nvidia engineer Ian Buck went the other way. His Kalshi contract last traded at 16 cents, down from 30 a day earlier, on 121,139 contracts.

On Polymarket’s “Next CEO of NVIDIA?”, Haas last traded at 28.6 cents at the same time, up 15.35 points in 24 hours, on about $110,400 in 24-hour volume. Buck last traded at 17 cents, down 12.5 points, on about $132,800.

The path since Friday

The 24-hour change folds in two moves. When EventMarkets reported the first one on Friday, Haas stood at 36 cents on Kalshi as of 12:16 p.m. ET, after buy orders lifted him from 13 cents starting at 11:53 a.m. Kalshi’s hourly records, labeled by the end of each hour, show that spike fading fast. In the hour ending 1 p.m. ET Friday, the contract traded as high as 45 cents and closed at 25. It touched 19 cents in the hour ending 9 p.m. ET and closed at 22 cents every hour from midnight through 3 a.m. ET Saturday.

The climb back began just before 4 a.m. Kalshi’s trade records show Haas moving from 22 to 24 cents at 3:56 a.m. ET, to 25 cents at 4:37 a.m., to 28 cents at 5:25 a.m. and to 29 cents at 5:59 a.m. It came on light trading: about 5,800 Haas contracts changed hands in the three hours ending 6 a.m. ET, against about 72,000 in the two hours ending 1 p.m. on Friday.

Buck’s slide came minutes earlier. On Kalshi he traded at 24 cents at 3:42 a.m. ET, then fell through a run of trades starting at 3:47 a.m. to 16 cents by 3:53 a.m. His hourly closes had held between 24 and 27 cents in every period ending from 4 p.m. Friday through 3 a.m. Saturday.

Polymarket’s hourly price history traces the same shape. Haas read 32.65 cents at noon ET Friday, 18.8 cents at 6 p.m., 22.95 cents at 3 a.m. Saturday and 28.1 cents at 6 a.m. Buck held at 23.5 cents from midnight through 2 a.m., then read 20.5 cents at 3 a.m. and 16.5 cents at 4 a.m.

The rest of the field

Interim CEO Colette Kress traded at 10 cents on Kalshi as of 6:13 a.m. ET, down from 14 a day earlier, on 120,676 contracts, and at 11.6 cents on Polymarket, down 2.45 points, on about $59,300. Kalshi’s Jensen Huang contract, which pays only if Huang is named CEO again before 2029, traded at 9 cents, down from 11, and carried the most volume in the event at 963,091 contracts. Apple hardware chief Johny Srouji traded at 8 cents and Nikesh Arora at 4 cents.

On Polymarket, “Jensen Huang (No Change)” last traded at 8.6 cents, up 0.85 point, on about $319,000, and Srouji at 6.7 cents. The whole event traded about $767,700 in 24 hours and about $1.93 million since it opened.

How the contracts settle

Both markets ask about a permanent chief. Kalshi’s rule for each name reads: “If Rene Haas is appointed, elected, named, designated, or succeeded to the position as CEO for NVIDIA before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.” An official announcement by Nvidia is enough, the person need not start the job, and interim or acting appointments do not qualify.

Polymarket resolves to the first person officially announced as Huang’s successor by 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 31, 2028, whether or not that person becomes CEO. Interim CEOs do not qualify, and if no successor is announced by then, it resolves to “Jensen Huang (No Change)”. Its resolution source is Nvidia’s public statements, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Nothing new is on the company’s record since the board’s Nov. 12 announcement. Nvidia’s newsroom lists no release after its “NVIDIA Announces CEO Transition” post, and the company’s latest SEC filing is the Nov. 12 Form 8-K reporting Huang’s resignation and Kress’s interim appointment. In that release, the board said it is starting a search for a permanent CEO and will consider internal and external candidates.

On Friday, Reuters relayed a Financial Times report that the board had approached Haas, and noted that there was no guarantee he would be offered the job or accept it. The board, in a statement Reuters quoted, said it was still selecting a search firm and had not formally engaged any candidates: “Any speculation regarding individual candidates, whether internal or external, is premature.”

Nvidia reports third-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Tuesday, Nov. 17. EventMarkets covered the first repricing of these successor markets on the day Nvidia announced Huang’s resignation.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.