FanDuel Predicts volume doubles as Flutter expects about $200 million in prediction market losses this year
Flutter says FanDuel Predicts traded $119 million in Q3 and expects a prediction market loss of about $200 million in 2026.
FanDuel Predicts traded $119 million in the third quarter of 2026, up 102% from the second quarter, FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment reported in its Q3 2026 results on November 4. The prediction market product averaged 66,000 monthly players, up 39% quarter on quarter, and its revenue was not material.
The cost of building it showed up in FanDuel’s numbers. US adjusted EBITDA fell 94% to $3 million, which Flutter puts down to investment in its prediction market offering and its July launch in Alberta. The company expects a prediction market adjusted EBITDA loss of about $200 million for 2026.
What changed in the product
Flutter moved all of FanDuel Predicts’ sports contracts to Crypto.com and launched its FanDuel One App nationwide. Since the start of the NFL season it has added a broader selection of sports markets, variable fees, sub-penny and fractional contracts, and a refer-a-friend promotion.
October volume was up 271% from July. Flutter says the customers it is signing up in states without a FanDuel sportsbook look like typical sportsbook customers, at a lower cost to acquire.
Sportsbooks and prediction markets
Flutter reports a limited impact from prediction markets on the betting of its existing customers. It is, however, beginning to see higher media costs as prediction market operators spend more on marketing. It expects its own marketing intensity to stay at similar levels in 2027, and its investment in prediction markets to continue in 2027 at similar or higher levels.
The company also counts on market-making. US other revenue rose 20% on market-making activity, and Flutter says it expects that growth to help fund the cost of acquiring prediction market customers.
The wider results
Flutter cut its full-year 2026 guidance, which now stands at $17.61 billion in revenue and $2.495 billion in adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint, citing unfavorable sports results and the closure of its Brazil business. It also paused share buybacks for the foreseeable future.
For the prediction market sector, the results show what entry costs. FanDuel, which reports a 36% share of sportsbook gaming revenue for the three months to September 30 in the states where it is live, is running its prediction market business at a loss to win customers in states without a FanDuel sportsbook, and plans to keep investing next year.
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