Genius Sports launches Prediction.com event-contract comparison site

Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) announced on September 17, 2026 that it has launched Prediction.com, a consumer platform for discovering prediction markets, comparing equivalent event contracts across multiple venues and following how market probabilities change as events unfold. The site was launched through Legend, the consumer media and technology business Genius Sports acquired earlier this year, and is pitched as a new flagship brand for the prediction-market category built on Legend’s consumer and comparison technology.

What Prediction.com does

According to the company’s announcement, Prediction.com brings markets and pricing from major prediction platforms into a single destination, allowing users to see how equivalent contracts are priced at different venues. The company says it also extends comparison to multi-leg combinations through what it describes as a proprietary cross-venue, multi-leg pricing engine.

For sports markets, the platform combines Genius Sports’ live game data with real-time prediction-market pricing, with an in-game experience that follows play-by-play action alongside changing probabilities, prices and market signals. The company notes it already provides official sports data and integrity services to leading prediction-market platforms. Genius frames the product both as a single destination for consumers and as a new discovery channel for prediction platforms, giving it a direct consumer presence at the point where users compare contracts and track events. It says the site will continue to expand its coverage, functionality and partner integrations as the ecosystem develops.

What the live site shows

As retrieved on September 18, 2026, the Prediction.com homepage carried sign-up offers with promo codes and referral links — indicating an affiliate referral model. Listed offers included a $35 Kalshi trading bonus using code PRED35, which the site describes as available to new users aged 18 and over, with residents of Michigan, Washington and Nevada ineligible; a Polymarket US deposit offer; and a 50% Underdog deposit match up to $1,000, which the site states is not valid in Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

The homepage also displayed an arbitrage section flagging cross-venue price gaps with estimated returns, and a “smart money” section tracking trades by wallets identified by lifetime profit — defined on-page as wallets with $10,000 or more in lifetime profit, ranked by 24-hour net flow. A featured-combos section priced the same multi-leg combinations at different venues side by side, for example Kalshi versus Novig, with on-page caveats that both legs must hit to pay and that prices refresh in the background and can move before a trade is placed. Observed market categories included Sports, Elections, Politics and Culture, with side-by-side venue pricing on individual markets.

A separate apps page compares 11 prediction-market platforms: Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, ProphetX, Underdog, Gemini Predictions, OG.com, Plus500, FanDuel Predicts, Fanatics Markets and PrizePicks.

The Legend acquisition behind the launch

Genius Sports announced a definitive agreement to acquire Legend on February 5, 2026, in a transaction valued at up to $1.2 billion. The consideration structure was $900 million payable at closing — $800 million in cash and $100 million in stock — plus an earnout of up to $300 million split evenly across two years post-closing, tied to the achievement of certain profitability and cash-flow thresholds and payable in cash or stock at Genius’ election, subject to customary conditions.

The company announced it had completed the acquisition on May 1, 2026. At closing, it described Legend’s properties as including Covers.com, Casino.org and Casino Guru, and said Legend generated 320 million annual visits from 118 million unique visitors in 2025, with more than two-thirds returning on a regular basis.

CEO Mark Locke’s stated rationale

In a first-person note published by Genius Sports, co-founder and CEO Mark Locke described prediction markets as a net benefit for the company, arguing they create more businesses to supply, more ways to monetize the same sports activity and more competition for the customers Genius helps operators win. The note carries a disclaimer that the views are the author’s own and are not investment advice or a forecast of company results.

Locke wrote that Genius supplies official data, settlement and integrity services to platforms including DraftKings, FanDuel, Kalshi and Polymarket; sells data and pricing to market makers providing exchange liquidity; and — through Legend and its wider media platform — helps operators acquire customers. He closed the note by arguing that Genius will be paid however Americans keep wagering on sports.