Kalshi’s December Fed contract on a hike above 25 basis points swings from 4 cents to 20 cents

Kalshi’s contract on a December Federal Reserve rate increase larger than a quarter point made a round trip on Friday, Nov. 13. It fell from 11 cents to as low as 4 cents in the minutes after the October producer price report, then jumped back above 10 cents in the early afternoon.

As of 12:12 p.m. ET on Nov. 14, 2026, the “Hike >25bps” contract in Kalshi’s “Fed decision in Dec 2026?” event last traded at 10 cents, with a 9-cent bid and a 10-cent ask. Its previous price, from 24 hours earlier, was 6 cents. About 1.08 million contracts changed hands in those 24 hours, more than in any other outcome in the event, and about 4.69 million have traded since the market opened.

How the day unfolded

Kalshi’s candlestick data show the contract trading at 10 to 11 cents from Thursday evening through 8:30 a.m. ET Friday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics released October producer prices at 8:30 a.m. The index for final demand rose 0.3% in October, seasonally adjusted, after 1.4% in September. Over 12 months it was up 6.5% before seasonal adjustment, the largest rise since November 2022. Prices for final demand less foods, energy and trade services rose 0.5%.

The day before, Kalshi’s monthly PPI ladder had crossed 50 cents between its 0.4% and 0.5% rungs, as EventMarkets reported.

After the release, the “Hike >25bps” contract traded as low as 4 cents between 8:31 and 8:33 a.m. ET. About 181,700 contracts traded in the hour to 9 a.m. It then mostly held between 5 and 7 cents until shortly after 1 p.m.

At about 1:10 p.m. ET the price turned. It touched 18 cents by 1:13 p.m. and 20 cents by 1:14 p.m., then settled at 12 cents for most of the rest of that hour. About 519,500 contracts traded between 1 and 2 p.m. ET, the busiest hour in Kalshi’s hourly data going back to early Thursday, Nov. 12. EventMarkets did not find a dated public record that lines up with the afternoon move. Since 2 p.m. Friday the contract has traded between 8 and 12 cents.

The quarter-point contract moved the other way. “Hike 25bps” traded at 88 to 89 cents in the early hours of Friday before the PPI release, rose as high as 94 cents in the following hour and fell as low as 86 cents between 1 and 2 p.m. As of 12:12 p.m. ET Saturday it last traded at 89 cents, down from a previous price of 92 cents, on about 150,900 contracts in 24 hours. “Fed maintains rate” last traded at 4 cents, and the two cut contracts at 1 cent each.

What the contract pays on

The contract asks: “Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?” The outcomes are mutually exclusive, and Kalshi’s rules give the example that a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike >25bps” to Yes and “Hike 25bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes. The event lists the Federal Reserve as its settlement source, and trading closes at 1:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 9.

The FOMC meets Dec. 8-9, a meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections, according to the Fed’s calendar. At its last meeting, on Oct. 28, the committee held the target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on a 10-2 vote. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented in favor of a quarter-point increase.

On Nov. 10, Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech that a 50-basis-point hike would merit consideration at the December meeting if October core CPI inflation came in around 0.3% or higher. The October CPI report, out later that day, showed core prices up 0.3%, as CoinDesk reported and as we noted at the time, and the December hike contracts climbed on both platforms, as EventMarkets reported. The repricing also reached January hike odds on Polymarket.

Polymarket traced the same path

Polymarket’s “Fed Decision in December?” event showed the same shape. Its “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?” contract stood at 9.9% at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday, 6.55% at 8:40 a.m. and 4.65% at noon, then rose from 5.65% at 1:10 p.m. to 10.45% at 1:20 p.m.

As of 12:12 p.m. ET Saturday, that contract traded at 9.15%, up 4.3 points in a day, on about $645,000 in 24-hour volume, the most of any bracket. The 25-basis-point hike bracket stood at 87.5%, down 4 points, on about $349,000. No change was at 3.75%, with about $421,000 traded, and the two cut brackets were below half a percent. The event has about $1.81 million in 24-hour volume and $33.7 million in total.

Polymarket’s brackets resolve on how many basis points the upper bound of the target range changes versus its level before the December meeting, using the FOMC statement after the Dec. 8-9 meeting. Unlisted moves round up to the nearest 25 basis points.

The next PPI report is scheduled for Dec. 15, after the December decision.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.