Polymarket’s Nov. 8 US-Iran ceasefire contract climbs to 32.5 cents

Polymarket’s contract on whether an effective US-Iran ceasefire began by Nov. 8 traded at 32.5 cents as of 10:13 a.m. ET, Nov. 14, 2026, up 13.5 points over 24 hours by Polymarket’s own one-day change figure. The contract, one of five dates in the event “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by…? (2 week pause),” had $106,818 traded in the previous 24 hours and $555,699 since it opened. The whole event had $188,112 in 24-hour volume and $1.51 million in total.

The Nov. 8 date has passed, but the contract was still open and unresolved on Polymarket as of Saturday morning. That follows from how the rules are written, set out below.

What the Nov. 8 contract asks

Each date resolves Yes “if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period is between market creation and the specified date (Iran Standard Time).” The first day of a period is the calendar date after the most recent qualifying action. Actions before the market was created do not count, and if none has happened since creation, the first day is the creation date.

The event was created at 2:48 UTC on Nov. 8, which was already Nov. 8 in Iran. For the Nov. 8 contract, the only possible first day is therefore Nov. 8 itself. A 14-day period starting then runs through 11:59 p.m. Iran Standard Time on Nov. 21. Any qualifying US strike from the market’s creation through that date would push the first day past Nov. 8. The rules add a reporting buffer: a period is not considered completed until 11:59 p.m. Iran time on the third calendar date after its 14th day, which for this contract is Nov. 24.

A qualifying action is an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran’s land territory or internal waters. Intercepted munitions and their debris, surface-to-air missiles, cyber operations, naval gunfire, artillery, minor strikes such as FPV drones, and threats or announcements of force that are not carried out do not count. The resolution sources are official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries and “a consensus of credible reporting.” (Our explainer on resolution risk covers how such rules get applied.)

The full date ladder

All prices are Yes prices as of 10:13 a.m. ET, Nov. 14, with Polymarket’s one-day change and 24-hour volume:

• Nov. 8: 32.5 cents, up 13.5 points, $106,818
• Nov. 15: 39.5 cents, up 3 points, $20,128
• Nov. 22: 54.5 cents, up 7 points, $25,937
• Nov. 30: 65.5 cents, up 3.5 points, $24,910
• Dec. 31: 82.5 cents, up 2 points, $10,319

A period that starts by Nov. 8 also starts by every later date, and the prices rise with each later date. On Friday, our report on the Nov. 15 contract recorded the Nov. 8 date at 21.5 cents as of 12:15 p.m. ET. Polymarket’s five-minute price history shows it dipping to 16 cents at 1:35 p.m. ET Friday, then trading between 21.5 and 27.5 cents from Friday evening into Saturday morning. It stepped up to 28.5 cents at 8:40 a.m. ET Saturday and to 32.5 cents at 9:40 a.m. The desk did not find a dated record tied to those two steps, so no cause is given for them.

The Nov. 22 contract moved earlier. It went from 48.5 to 54 cents between 6:05 and 6:10 a.m. ET Saturday, after Reuters published a report at 6:03 a.m. ET. That Reuters report, citing three people familiar with the matter, said President Donald Trump had told senior advisers in recent days that he may hold off on attacking Iran if the US faces no new provocations from Tehran or the Houthis. The same report described a third aircraft carrier moving into the region and Israeli lobbying for renewed strikes, and a White House official said only Trump knows “what he will do, and when.”

No Kalshi equivalent

A search of Kalshi’s public list of 16,442 series at 10:12 a.m. ET Saturday found no series on a US-Iran ceasefire or on US strikes against Iran. Kalshi does list other Iran questions, including “US Iran nuclear deal,” “US-Iran MoU text released by?” and “U.S.-Iran senior-level meeting.”

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.