Polymarket’s Nov. 15 US-Iran ceasefire contract falls to 35 cents

Polymarket’s contract on whether an effective US-Iran ceasefire begins by Nov. 15 traded at 35 cents as of 12:15 p.m. ET, Nov. 13, 2026, down from 52.5 cents at noon ET on Thursday, Nov. 12. The contract, part of the event “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by…? (2 week pause),” had $101,113 traded in the previous 24 hours and $286,173 since it opened.

Most of the drop came in a quarter of an hour. Polymarket’s price history shows the Nov. 15 contract at 52.5 cents through 12:15 p.m. ET Thursday, at 45.5 cents at 12:20 p.m. and at 38 cents at 12:30 p.m. It then moved between 36.5 and 46.5 cents until 3:25 p.m. and slipped overnight, reaching 35.5 cents by 4 a.m. ET Friday. Polymarket’s own one-day price change for the contract read minus 9.5 points as of 12:15 p.m. ET Friday.

The full date ladder

The event has five dates. Each is a separate Yes/No contract, and all share the same rules. Prices are Yes prices as of 12:15 p.m. ET, Nov. 13, with the noon ET Thursday price in parentheses:

• Nov. 8: 21.5 cents (32 cents), $160,939 traded in 24 hours
• Nov. 15: 35 cents (52.5 cents), $101,113
• Nov. 22: 47.5 cents (63.5 cents), $55,087
• Nov. 30: 62 cents (67.5 cents), $55,883
• Dec. 31: 81.5 cents (87.5 cents), $27,766

Every date fell from Thursday noon, and the Nov. 15 and Nov. 22 contracts fell the most, by 17.5 and 16 points. Across all five dates, the event had $400,788 in 24-hour volume and $1.33 million in total volume. It was created at 9:48 p.m. ET on Nov. 7 (2:48 UTC on Nov. 8). The Nov. 8 date has passed, but as of 12:15 p.m. ET Friday Polymarket still showed that contract as open and unresolved; under the rules, a period starting Nov. 8 is not considered completed until 11:59 p.m. Iran time on Nov. 24.

How the contracts settle

A date resolves Yes if a continuous 14-day period with no qualifying US military action against Iran is completed, and the first day of that period falls between the market’s creation and the listed date, in Iran Standard Time. The first day is the calendar date after the most recent qualifying action. Actions before the market was created do not count, and if none has happened since creation, the first day is the creation date. Each period runs through 11:59 p.m. Iran Standard Time on its 14th day.

A qualifying action is an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. Air strikes include bombs, air-to-surface missiles and air-launched drones; surface-to-surface strikes include one-way attack drones and cruise or ballistic missiles. The rules exclude intercepted munitions and their debris, surface-to-air missiles, small-arms fire, ground incursions, cyber operations, naval gunfire and artillery, minor strikes such as FPV drones and ATGMs, and any threat or announcement of force that has not been carried out. “Iran” means its land territory and internal waters, not its maritime territory or airspace.

A period is not considered completed until 11:59 p.m. Iran Standard Time on the third calendar date after its 14th day, to allow time for reporting. For the Nov. 15 contract, a period beginning on Nov. 15 would run through Nov. 28, and that buffer would end on Dec. 1. Polymarket lists the contract’s end date as 3:29 p.m. ET on Nov. 15. The resolution sources are official information from the US and Iranian governments and militaries and a consensus of credible reporting. A period that starts by Nov. 8 also starts by every later date, so a Yes on an earlier date means a Yes on every later one; the current prices rise with each later date. (Our explainer on resolution risk covers how such rules get applied.)

Where the talks stand

On Nov. 9, Reuters reported that President Donald Trump planned to hold off on new military strikes against Iran for the time being and to keep a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The same report cited Iranian state media describing US strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island overnight and noted that the US had not commented. The US had repeatedly rejected Iran’s truce plan, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Tehran’s conditions “outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic.” Reuters described the plan as an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports, some sanctions relief and a halt to bombing in return for Iran ending its own blockade of the strait.

On Thursday morning, Trump wrote on Truth Social, “We don’t need a deal with Iran. Those days have long since passed,” and directed Vice President JD Vance to focus on corruption and crime in Democratic-run cities and states. CNBC’s report on the post went up at 8:15 a.m. ET. Reuters noted that the post came a day after The Wall Street Journal reported Vance was considering face-to-face talks with a senior Iranian security official.

The Nov. 15 contract held at 52.5 cents for about four hours after CNBC’s report. The desk did not find a dated record tied to the 12:15 p.m. move, so no cause is given for it. Our Nov. 12 roundup of the biggest moves tracked three other Iran markets. The war was also the main focus of the eight impeachment articles against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth that the House voted on Nov. 10 to send back to committee.

No Kalshi equivalent

A search of Kalshi’s full public list of 16,386 series at about 12:14 p.m. ET Friday found no series on a US-Iran ceasefire or on US strikes against Iran. Kalshi’s series list does carry other Iran titles, such as “US-Iran MoU text released by?” and “U.S.-Iran senior-level meeting,” but none on a ceasefire or a pause in strikes.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.