Prediction markets today: the biggest moves, Nov. 12, 2026
Lutnick exit odds, Nvidia's year-end and CEO markets, New Zealand, Spain and three Iran contracts led Thursday's 24-hour price moves.
These are eight of the largest 24-hour price moves the EventMarkets desk tracked on Kalshi and Polymarket on Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026, each of at least 5 points. All prices and volumes are as of 4:12 p.m. ET, read from each platform’s public data. Prices are market data, not advice, and a price is not a prediction of what will happen.
Kalshi volume is counted in contracts and Polymarket volume in dollars. Each contract pays $1 if its question resolves Yes.
Politics and government
Howard Lutnick to leave the Trump administration in 2026 (Kalshi). The Lutnick contract in Kalshi’s “Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?” market last traded at 41 cents, up from 27 cents 24 hours earlier, on about 212,085 contracts. It resolves Yes if Lutnick leaves as Secretary of Commerce before 2027. Our earlier story covered the contract’s rise to 30 cents by early Thursday afternoon: Kalshi odds of Howard Lutnick leaving Commerce in 2026 climb to 30 cents. Market: Kalshi.
New Zealand general election winner, National (Kalshi). National’s contract last traded at 40 cents, up from 34 cents a day earlier, on about 116,360 contracts. Labour’s contract stood at 61 cents, down from 65, as of 4:13 p.m. ET. National traded at 98.1 cents early on Nov. 7, election day, before sliding on Nov. 11. The Electoral Commission’s preliminary results give National 42 seats and Labour 36, with Labour slightly ahead on the party vote, and official results are due Nov. 27. Our story: Kalshi’s New Zealand election market has National at 42 cents, down from 98 on Nov. 7. Market: Kalshi.
Next Prime Minister of Spain, Alberto Núñez Feijóo (Polymarket). Feijóo last traded at 83 cents, down from about 89 cents 24 hours earlier, on about $137,964. Pedro Sánchez stood at 13.7 cents. Spain votes on Nov. 29 in a snap election, and the contract pays only on a prime minister who wins a confidence vote in the Congress of Deputies and is sworn in by March 31, 2028. Our story: Polymarket odds of Feijóo becoming Spain’s next prime minister slip to 83 cents. Market: Polymarket.
Nvidia
Next CEO of NVIDIA, Colette Kress (Polymarket). Kress last traded at 14.8 cents, up from about 4 cents a day earlier, on about $165,333. Ian Buck traded at 39 cents in the same market. The market excludes interim CEOs, a role Kress, Nvidia’s chief financial officer, has held since Nvidia announced Jensen Huang’s resignation on Nov. 12. It settles on the first successor officially announced by Dec. 31, 2028. Our story: Huang’s resignation sends Nvidia CEO exit contracts to 99.9 cents as successor markets reprice. Market: Polymarket.
Largest company at the end of December 2026, NVIDIA (Polymarket). Nvidia’s contract last traded at 10 cents, down from about 17 cents 24 hours earlier, on about $162,975. Apple’s contract in the same event last traded at 85.7 cents. The event resolves to the world’s largest company by market capitalization at the close on Dec. 31, 2026, and Nvidia is scheduled to report quarterly results on Nov. 17. Our story: Polymarket odds of Nvidia ending 2026 as the world’s largest company fall to 9.5 cents. Market: Polymarket.
Iran
The desk did not open a dated record tied to any of the three Iran moves below, so no cause is given for them.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through Nov. 22 (Polymarket). The Nov. 22 contract last traded at 84 cents, down from about 91 cents a day earlier, on about $145,954. It resolves No if Israel or Iran carries out a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly hits the other country before 11:59 p.m. Iran time on Nov. 22; intercepted munitions, cyber operations and ground incursions do not count. Market: Polymarket.
US announces end of Iranian blockade by Dec. 31 (Polymarket). The Dec. 31 contract last traded at 27.7 cents, down from about 34 cents 24 hours earlier, on about $118,187. The market’s description dates the reinstated US naval blockade of Iran to a July 13 announcement by President Donald Trump, and a Yes needs an official US announcement of a general end or suspension, not a partial exemption. Market: Polymarket.
US-Iran final nuclear deal by Dec. 31 (Polymarket). The Dec. 31 contract last traded at 7 cents, down from about 12 cents a day earlier, on about $169,366. The market traces back to a June 14 written agreement in which both countries committed to negotiate toward a “final deal,” and it resolves Yes only if a qualifying written instrument is signed or formally adopted by both by 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 31. Market: Polymarket.
Polymarket’s “AI bubble burst in 2026?” contract was priced at 6.3 cents, moving less than 1 point in the same 24 hours, so it is not on this list.
Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.