Kalshi odds of Howard Lutnick leaving Commerce in 2026 climb to 30 cents

Traders on Kalshi raised the price of Howard Lutnick leaving his post as Secretary of Commerce before the end of 2026. As of 1:13 p.m. ET on Nov. 12, 2026, the Lutnick contract in Kalshi’s “Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?” market last traded at 30 cents, up 9 points from 21 cents 24 hours earlier. The best bid was 29 cents and the best ask 30 cents.

About 134,000 contracts changed hands in the previous 24 hours, roughly a fifth of the 646,888 traded since the market opened in December 2025. Open interest stood at about 216,000 contracts, roughly double the 103,000 open on Nov. 9. Each contract pays $1 if the market resolves Yes, so a 30-cent price is a market price, not a finding about what will happen.

Most of the move came in one hour

Kalshi’s hourly price history shows the contract closing each hour between 21 and 23 cents from noon to 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 11. In the hour from 4 to 5 p.m. ET, it traded as high as 39 cents and closed the hour at 36, on about 22,600 contracts. It closed each hour between 35 and 38 cents through the evening, slipped to 32 cents in the hour before midnight and held at 31 to 32 cents through Thursday morning.

The jump came after Axios published a report at 3:59 p.m. ET on Wednesday that Lutnick had stalled President Donald Trump’s crackdown on companies suspected of diverting Nvidia’s advanced AI chips to China. Citing six high-level sources, Axios reported that Trump had authorized the crackdown for the third time this year on Thursday, Nov. 5, and that Lutnick had repeatedly stood in the way. A Commerce Department spokesperson denied that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confronted Lutnick at a Situation Room meeting that day and did not immediately comment on the other allegations. Reuters carried the Axios report at 4:21 p.m. ET.

On Thursday the White House said it stood by him. At 11:03 a.m. ET, Axios quoted a White House official saying that Trump “maintains complete confidence in the secretary and his ability to carry out the position.” Separately, in the hour from 11 a.m. to noon ET, the contract traded as low as 23 cents before closing the hour at 29, on about 14,100 contracts; hourly data cannot show where in that hour the low came.

Before this week the contract had drifted lower for months, from daily closes of 32 to 34 cents in mid-July to between 15 and 22 cents in late October. It closed at 17 cents on Oct. 31. On Nov. 10 it briefly traded up to 40 cents between 3 and 4 p.m. ET, then fell back to 22 cents by Wednesday morning.

What the contracts count

Kalshi’s rules resolve Yes if Lutnick leaves as Secretary of Commerce before 2027, and he must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within that period. Resignation, retirement and removal count. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions and recusals do not, unless he formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If he dies in office, the exchange may settle the contracts at the last fair price. The market is set to close at 9:59 a.m. ET on Jan. 1, 2027, or earlier if he leaves. Its settlement sources include Reuters, the Associated Press, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal and official government records.

Polymarket lists a similar question with a different trigger. Its “Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?” market resolves Yes if he ceases to be secretary for any period before 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 31, 2026, and an announced resignation or removal resolves it immediately, whatever the effective date. As of 1:13 p.m. ET on Nov. 12, Yes showed 29 cents, with a best bid of 27 cents, a best ask of 31 cents and a last trade at 35 cents. It was up 10 points in a day on about $16,100 of volume, out of about $47,500 since the market opened on March 31. Its hourly history follows a similar path: about 21 cents at 4 p.m. ET Wednesday, 38 cents at 8 p.m. ET and 29 cents at 1 p.m. ET Thursday.

Where Lutnick sits in the field

Lutnick, a former chairman and chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald and BGC Group, is the 41st Secretary of Commerce, according to his Commerce Department biography. His department sits at the center of US export control policy.

Among open contracts in the same Kalshi event, only White House Cabinet Secretary Meghan Bauer traded higher as of 1:13 p.m. ET, at 86 cents on about 2,900 contracts in 24 hours. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stood at 16 cents on about 63,200 contracts, FBI Director Kash Patel at 11 cents, Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 9 cents and Bessent at 8 cents. Three contracts in the event have already settled Yes this month: chief of staff Susie Wiles, deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller and special envoy Ric Grenell. Reuters now identifies Miller as White House chief of staff.

The desk covered a related swing on Nov. 10, when Polymarket’s Hegseth exit odds fell to 12.5 cents after the House voted 211-204 to send an impeachment resolution back to committee. The desk also covered the Polymarket market on a Jensen Huang exit announcement on Nov. 11. Nvidia said Thursday that Huang had resigned as chief executive, effective immediately.

Scrutiny of Lutnick now runs through Congress. Reuters reported on Thursday that Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chris Coons had written to Lutnick, Rubio and Miller asking the administration to preserve documents on Nvidia’s chip exports to China, and that Rep. Brian Mast said Congress needs to investigate the Commerce Department’s role in approving chip exports, while adding that he has confidence in Lutnick. Under Kalshi’s rules, Lutnick must have an actual departure date, vacating the role before 2027, for the contract to resolve Yes.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.