Prediction markets today: the biggest moves, Nov. 13, 2026

These are eight of the largest 24-hour price moves the EventMarkets desk tracked on Kalshi and Polymarket on Friday, Nov. 13, 2026, each of at least 5 points. All prices and volumes are as of 4:12 p.m. ET, Nov. 13, 2026, read from each platform’s public data. Prices are market data, not advice, and a price is not a prediction of what will happen.

Kalshi volume is counted in contracts and Polymarket volume in dollars. Each contract pays $1 if its question resolves Yes.

Politics and government

Howard Lutnick to leave the Trump administration in 2026 (Kalshi). The Lutnick contract in Kalshi’s “Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?” market last traded at 58 cents, up from 40 cents a day earlier, on about 196,010 contracts. It resolves Yes if Lutnick leaves as Secretary of Commerce before 2027, and he must actually vacate the role. Our story traced three bursts in the price, the last on Friday morning after reports of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s CNBC interview about Megaspeed and the Commerce Department’s entity list: Kalshi contract on Lutnick leaving Commerce in 2026 crosses 50 cents and trades at 64. Market: Kalshi.

Jensen Huang to testify in front of Congress before December (Kalshi). The “Before Dec 2026” contract last traded at 12 cents, down from 83 cents a day earlier, on about 192,894 contracts. The “Before Jan 2027” contract in the same event stood at 92 cents, up from 88. The December contract resolves Yes if Huang, Nvidia’s former chief executive, testifies in front of Congress before Dec. 1, 2026. On Nov. 12, the chairs of three House committees asked him to sit for a closed-door, transcribed interview on Dec. 1 itself. Our story: House chairs ask Jensen Huang for a Dec. 1 interview, and Kalshi’s December testimony contract stands at 18 cents. Market: Kalshi.

Nvidia

Who will be the next CEO of NVIDIA, Rene Haas and Ian Buck (Kalshi). Arm chief executive Rene Haas last traded at 24 cents, up from 8 cents a day earlier, on about 159,094 contracts. Ian Buck traded at 24 cents, down from 40, on about 173,886 contracts, and interim CEO Colette Kress at 11 cents, down from 12. Each name pays only if that person is named Nvidia’s CEO before Jan. 1, 2029; interim or acting appointments do not count. In a Nov. 12 release, Nvidia’s board began a search for a permanent CEO, with Kress serving as interim CEO and CFO until a successor is named. Our story: Rene Haas jumps to 36 cents in next-Nvidia-CEO markets while Ian Buck and Colette Kress fall. Market: Kalshi.

Next CEO of NVIDIA, Ian Buck and Rene Haas (Polymarket). Buck last traded at 24 cents, down 15 points on Polymarket’s one-day change, on about $170,092. Haas last traded at 20.8 cents, up about 10 points on the day, on about $70,591. The market settles on the first person officially announced as Jensen Huang’s successor by 11:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 31, 2028, and interim CEOs do not qualify. Market: Polymarket.

When will NVIDIA announce its next permanent CEO, before Nov. 20 (Kalshi). The “Before Nov 20, 2026” contract last traded at 3 cents, down from 8 cents a day earlier, on about 113,625 contracts. The “Before Dec 16, 2026” contract rose to 19 cents from 13. A Yes needs an announcement through official company channels, such as a press release or SEC filing; rumors and unconfirmed reports do not count. Market: Kalshi.

Tech and IPOs

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO, before Nov. 16 (Kalshi). The “Before Nov 16, 2026” contract last traded at 10 cents, up from 1 cent a day earlier, on about 354,138 contracts. The “Before Nov 20, 2026” contract stood at 97 cents, unchanged. The market resolves Yes if the SEC declares Anthropic’s Form S-1 effective, the IPO is priced or an exchange assigns it a ticker before Nov. 16. Separately, a filed free writing prospectus reproducing Anthropic’s IPO website says the price is expected to be set on Nov. 18, subject to regulatory clearance. Our story: Kalshi odds of an Anthropic IPO confirmation before Nov. 16 jump to 17 cents. Market: Kalshi.

Football and film

NFC East Division winner, Washington (Kalshi). Washington’s contract last traded at 16 cents, up from 10 cents a day earlier, on about 236,476 contracts. The New York Giants’ contract stood at 47 cents, down from 62, and Dallas at 35 cents, up from 30. The Commanders beat the Giants 24-21 on Thursday night. Our story: Washington’s NFC East contract trades at 16 cents on Kalshi, up from 10 a day earlier. Market: Kalshi.

Oscar winner: Best Picture, You Can See Everything (Kalshi). The documentary’s contract last traded at 24 cents, up from 18 cents a day earlier, on about 47,443 contracts. The Odyssey, the highest-priced film in the event, stood at 52 cents, down from 55. In nominations released Nov. 12, Cinema Eye Honors put You Can See Everything level with American Doctor for the most nominations, seven each. Our story: You Can See Everything climbs to 24 cents in Kalshi’s best picture market. Market: Kalshi.

Three other markets from Friday’s posts and the desk’s sweep moved less than 5 points over this 24-hour window, so they are not on this list. Chris Van Hollen’s contract in Kalshi’s “Next Senate Democratic Leader?” market last traded at 13 cents, against a previous-day price of 12, on about 556,429 contracts. Polymarket’s Nov. 15 contract in “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by…? (2 week pause)” last traded at 40 cents, down 1.5 points on the day. Polymarket’s “↑$1.75T” contract on Anthropic’s valuation by Dec. 31 last traded at 42 cents, down 4.5 points on the day, on about $171,472.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.