Prediction markets today: the biggest moves, Nov. 14, 2026

These are nine of the largest 24-hour price moves the EventMarkets desk tracked on Kalshi and Polymarket on Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026. They are listed by the size of the 24-hour change in the desk’s reporting over the past day, from our stories or from the desk’s afternoon market sweep. Every current price and volume below is as of 4:13 p.m. ET, Nov. 14, 2026, read from each platform’s public data, and is compared with the price 24 hours earlier. Some of the moves came overnight or on Friday, so the latest 24-hour change can be smaller than the one first recorded.

Kalshi volume is counted in contracts and Polymarket volume in dollars. Each contract pays $1 if its question resolves Yes. Prices are market data, not advice.

1. Bad Bunny on the GTA VI album (Kalshi). The Bad Bunny contract in Kalshi’s “Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album · Features” market asks: “Will Bad Bunny be featured on Grand Theft Auto VI: The Album?” It last traded at 5 cents, down from 47 cents a day earlier, on 142,043 contracts. Kalshi’s hourly data show it closing at 51 cents in the hour to 2 a.m. ET Saturday and at 4 cents in the hour to 5 a.m. Polymarket’s matching question priced Bad Bunny at 4.3 cents as of about 4:10 p.m. ET, down 45.2 points on the day, on $25,564. Rockstar’s music page still lists the album as “Coming November 19,” with 34 original tracks, and Bad Bunny is not among the 10 singles it shows. Our story: Bad Bunny falls to 3 cents in Kalshi’s GTA VI album features market. Market: Kalshi.

2. More than 8,000 measles cases in 2026 (Kalshi). “Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?” fell from 47 cents to 27 cents on Friday, Nov. 13, as our Saturday-morning story recorded. As of 4:13 p.m. Saturday it last traded at 25 cents, against 24 cents 24 hours earlier, on 1,395 contracts. The contract settles on CDC’s count, and CDC’s page, updated Nov. 13, showed 5,412 confirmed cases in 2026 as of Nov. 12, or 2,588 short of 8,000. Our story: Kalshi’s 8,000-case measles contract falls to 27 cents after the CDC count reaches 5,412. Market: Kalshi.

3. Next Nvidia CEO, Rene Haas and Ian Buck (Kalshi and Polymarket). Our early-morning story had Arm chief executive Rene Haas at 29 cents on Kalshi, up from 13. As of 4:13 p.m. he last traded at 27 cents, against 24 cents a day earlier, on 65,534 contracts, while Ian Buck traded at 18 cents, down from 24, on 70,697 contracts. On Polymarket, Haas stood at 25.55 cents, up 5.1 points, on $64,595, and Buck at 18.5 cents, down 4 points, on $75,054. Kalshi’s contract pays if the person is named Nvidia’s CEO before Jan. 1, 2029, and interim or acting appointments do not count. Nvidia’s Nov. 12 release named Colette Kress interim CEO and stated that the board is starting a search for a permanent CEO, with internal and external candidates. Our story: Rene Haas climbs back to 29 cents in next-Nvidia-CEO markets as Ian Buck slips to 16. Markets: Kalshi, Polymarket.

4. US-Iran ceasefire by Nov. 8 (Polymarket). “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?” climbed 13.5 points to 32.5 cents by 10:13 a.m., as our story reported. It has since given back much of that: as of 4:13 p.m. it stood at 26 cents, up 3.5 points from 22.5 cents a day earlier, on $103,154. Polymarket’s hourly history put it at 33.5 cents at 2 p.m. ET. Each date resolves Yes if a continuous 14-day period with no qualifying US military action against Iran is completed, with the first day falling between the market’s creation and that date, Iran Standard Time. Our story: Polymarket’s Nov. 8 US-Iran ceasefire contract climbs to 32.5 cents. Market: Polymarket.

5. Anthropic IPO confirmed before Nov. 16 (Kalshi). The “Before Nov 16, 2026” contract in “When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?” fell from 16 cents to 7 cents in the 24 hours to Friday night, as our story recorded. As of 4:13 p.m. Saturday it last traded at 4 cents, down from 10 cents a day earlier, on 270,449 contracts; the hour to 2 p.m. alone carried about 81,200. It resolves Yes if the SEC declares Anthropic’s S-1 effective, the IPO is priced, or an exchange assigns it a ticker before Nov. 16. Anthropic’s filings, as our story reported, expect pricing on Nov. 18 and trading on Nov. 19, subject to regulatory clearance. Our story: Kalshi odds of an Anthropic IPO announcement before Nov. 16 fall to 7 cents. Market: Kalshi.

6. Howard Lutnick to leave Commerce in 2026 (Kalshi). The Lutnick contract in “Who will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?” last traded at 53 cents, down from 59 cents a day earlier, on 153,526 contracts. It traded as low as 46 cents in the hour to 5 a.m. ET Saturday. It resolves Yes if Lutnick leaves as Secretary of Commerce before 2027, and he must actually vacate the role. Lutnick has agreed to appear before the Senate Banking Committee, which asked him to testify on Dec. 10, as our Nov. 13 story reported. Our earlier story: Kalshi contract on Lutnick leaving Commerce in 2026 crosses 50 cents and trades at 64. Market: Kalshi.

7. Next Senate Democratic leader, Chuck Schumer and Chris Van Hollen (Kalshi). Schumer’s contract last traded at 91.2 cents, up from 86 cents a day earlier, on 302,437 contracts. Van Hollen’s traded at 7.3 cents, down from 12, on 407,410 contracts. Most of the move came Saturday afternoon: Schumer closed at 85 cents in the hour to 2 p.m. ET and at 92.9 cents in the hour to 4 p.m., when Van Hollen closed at 6.8 cents. Each contract resolves Yes if that senator wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election. Senate Democrats vote by secret ballot on Dec. 1, as our story on Van Hollen’s challenge reported. Our earlier story: Van Hollen challenges Schumer for Senate Democratic leader, and Kalshi prices him at 17 cents. Market: Kalshi.

8. J.D. Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination (Polymarket). “Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?” stood at 37.2 cents, up 4.75 points from 32.45 cents a day earlier, on $291,599. Our morning story recorded a 5.2-point rise to 36.4 cents, most of it in one step at about 3:25 a.m. ET. The market resolves Yes if Vance wins and accepts the 2028 Republican nomination, using a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Our story: Vance climbs to 36 cents in Polymarket’s 2028 Republican nominee market. Market: Polymarket.

9. Fed hike above 25 basis points in December (Kalshi). “Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting?” last traded at 11 cents, against 12 cents a day earlier, on 314,113 contracts. Its swing came on Friday: it fell to 4 cents after the October producer price report and touched 20 cents in the hour to 2 p.m., when about 519,500 contracts traded. That report showed final-demand producer prices up 0.3% in October and 6.5% over 12 months. The outcomes are mutually exclusive, and trading closes at 1:59 p.m. ET on Dec. 9, the second day of the Fed’s Dec. 8-9 meeting. Our story: Kalshi’s December Fed contract on a hike above 25 basis points swings from 4 cents to 20 cents. Market: Kalshi.

Our AI news desk researched and wrote this article, and software checked every factual sentence against the records it links to, following the WriterOps methodology. Report an error.